Niche

Collectathon + Sandbox

Games tagged both Collectathon and Sandbox: 50 indie paid launches, 2 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Collectathon + Sandbox priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Collectathon + Sandbox is too small to compare with Collectathon and is too small to compare with Sandbox: 0 of its 32 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0 of 439 launches for Collectathon and 1.4 in 100 for Sandbox.

Small sample: 32 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneCollectathon

0 of 439launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 439 launches

Typical earnings$269

Launches439 / 0 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairCollectathon + Sandbox

0 of 32launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 32 launches

Typical earnings$251

Launches32 / 0 hits

Expected0.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoSandbox

1.4in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 73

Typical earnings$202

Launches435 / 6 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.5 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 219), typical $169, from 13,780 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices50 in pair Under $532 in pair $5 to $1010 in pair$10 to $207: too few$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 32 games tagged both Collectathon and Sandbox priced under $5. 0 of 32 of them earned $100k+, against 0 of 407 for Collectathon-only games and 1.5 in 100 for Sandbox-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Collectathon alone and is too small to compare with Sandbox alone.

Both: 32 games priced under $5; 0 of 32 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $251.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 32 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Squirrel with a Gunleads this pair64.3%

PairSquirrel with a Gun64.3%

CollectathonTCG Card Shop Simulator55.4%

SandboxManor Lords22.8%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Collectathon + Sandbox

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Squirrel with a Gun earned 64.3% of the estimated first-year money of the 50 Collectathon + Sandbox launches.
Collectathon is led by TCG Card Shop Simulator, with 55.4% of its money.
Sandbox is led by Manor Lords, with 22.8% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Collectathon + Sandbox is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.

Collectathon + Sandbox through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view48 of 50 launches	Without the breakout49 of 50 launches	Last 18 months18 of 50 launches
Launches counted	502 hits	482 hits	491 hits	180 hits
Earned $100k+	2 of 50too few for a rate	2 of 48too few for a rate	1 of 49too few for a rate	0 of 18too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$706top tenth $44,609+	$706	$567	$287
Chance against standard	the base	+4.2%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell	-49.0%2.0 fewer in 100	-100.0%4.0 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	-19.7%$139 less	-59.3%$419 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Collectathon and Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 50 launches.

Launches counted: 502 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 50too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $706top tenth $44,609+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 50 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 482 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 48too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $706
Chance against standard: +4.2%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Squirrel with a Gun (64.3% of the money): 49 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 491 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 49too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $567
Chance against standard: -49.0%2.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -19.7%$139 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 18 of 50.

Launches counted: 180 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 18too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $287
Chance against standard: -100.0%4.0 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -59.3%$419 less; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Collectathon and Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 50 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 50 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Squirrel with a Gun (64.3% of the money): 49 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 18 of 50.

Collectathon is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Collectathon through every lens, all prices
Collectathon	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view711 of 745 launches	Without the breakout744 of 745 launches	Last 18 months220 of 745 launches
Launches counted	74527 hits	71126 hits	74426 hits	2207 hits
Earned $100k+	3.6 in 1001 in 28	3.7 in 1001 in 27	3.5 in 1001 in 29	3.2 in 1001 in 31
Typical first-year earnings	$604top tenth $24,729+	$627	$604	$607
Chance against standard	the base	+0.9%no change	-3.6%0.1 fewer in 100	-12.2%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+3.8%$23 more	0.0%no change	+0.5%$3 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Collectathon, 12 to 36 months old: 745 launches.

Launches counted: 74527 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $604top tenth $24,729+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 34 of 745 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 71126 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $627
Chance against standard: +0.9%no change
Typical against standard: +3.8%$23 more

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, TCG Card Shop Simulator (55.4% of the money): 744 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 74426 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings: $604
Chance against standard: -3.6%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 220 of 745.

Launches counted: 2207 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.2 in 1001 in 31
Typical first-year earnings: $607
Chance against standard: -12.2%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +0.5%$3 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Collectathon, 12 to 36 months old: 745 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 34 of 745 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, TCG Card Shop Simulator (55.4% of the money): 744 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 220 of 745.

Sandbox is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Sandbox through every lens, all prices
Sandbox	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,172 of 1,219 launches	Without the breakout1,218 of 1,219 launches	Last 18 months387 of 1,219 launches
Launches counted	1,219193 hits	1,172181 hits	1,218192 hits	38762 hits
Earned $100k+	15.8 in 100	15.4 in 100	15.8 in 100	16.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,882top tenth $223,977+	$1,914	$1,882	$2,011
Chance against standard	the base	-2.5%0.4 fewer in 100	-0.4%0.1 fewer in 100	+1.2%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.7%$32 more	0.0%no change	+6.9%$129 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 1,219 launches.

Launches counted: 1,219193 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,882top tenth $223,977+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 1,219 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,172181 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,914
Chance against standard: -2.5%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.7%$32 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.8% of the money): 1,218 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,218192 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,882
Chance against standard: -0.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 387 of 1,219.

Launches counted: 38762 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,011
Chance against standard: +1.2%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: +6.9%$129 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 1,219 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 1,219 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.8% of the money): 1,218 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 387 of 1,219.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Collectathon + Sandbox moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.