Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Colorful + Match 3
Games tagged both Colorful and Match 3: 86 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Colorful + Match 3 priced under $5.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Colorful + Match 3 trails Colorful and is level with Match 3: 0.0 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.6 in 100 for Colorful and 0.0 in 100 for Match 3.
That is about 0.0 times the 0.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 46 games tagged both Colorful and Match 3 priced under $5. 0.0 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 0.7 for Colorful-only games and 0.0 for Match 3-only games, so the mix trails Colorful alone and is level with Match 3 alone.
Both: 46 games priced under $5; 0.0 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $40.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 46 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Colorful + Match 3 is one-hit market +1: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view83 of 86 launches | Without the breakout85 of 86 launches | Last 18 months45 of 86 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 861 hits | 831 hits | 850 hits | 451 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.2 in 1001 in 83 | 1.2 in 1001 in 83 | 0.0 in 100 | 2.2 in 1001 in 45 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $121top tenth $2,428+ | $121 | $121 | $100 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -100.0%1.2 fewer in 100 | +83.3%1.0 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -17.4%$21 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Colorful and Match 3, 6 to 30 months old: 86 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 86 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition (67.4% of the money): 85 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 45 of 86.
Colorful holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Colorful | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,038 of 3,082 launches | Without the breakout3,081 of 3,082 launches | Last 18 months1,714 of 3,082 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 3,082134 hits | 3,038130 hits | 3,081133 hits | 1,71470 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.3 in 1001 in 23 | 4.3 in 1001 in 23 | 4.3 in 1001 in 23 | 4.1 in 1001 in 24 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $364top tenth $17,195+ | $364 | $364 | $303 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -4.7%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -16.8%$61 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Colorful, 6 to 30 months old: 3,082 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 44 of 3,082 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (10.0% of the money): 3,081 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,714 of 3,082.
Match 3 is one-hit market +2: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 2 more lenses too. It holds in 0 of 3.
| Match 3 | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view261 of 284 launches | Without the breakout283 of 284 launches | Last 18 months146 of 284 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2843 hits | 2612 hits | 2832 hits | 1462 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.1 in 1001 in 91 | 0.8 in 1001 in 125 | 0.7 in 1001 in 143 | 1.4 in 1001 in 71 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $121top tenth $2,589+ | $121 | $121 | $100 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -27.3%0.3 fewer in 100 | -36.4%0.4 fewer in 100 | +27.3%0.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -17.4%$21 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Moves the answer | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Match 3, 6 to 30 months old: 284 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 23 of 284 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, POPUCOM (51.6% of the money): 283 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 146 of 284.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Colorful + Match 3 moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.