Niche

Dark + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Dark and Visual Novel: 138 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Dark + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Dark and is level with Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Dark + Visual Novel trails both its tags: 3 of its 22 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 16.7 in 100 for Dark and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.

Small sample: 22 launches, 3 hits.

1STWinner

Tag onemood tagDark

16.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds16.7 in 100

Typical earnings$10,525

Launches168 / 28 hits

Pair trails by3.1 in 100

3RDThird

This pairDark + Visual Novel

3 of 22launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 22 launches

Typical earnings$8,499

Launches22 / 3 hits

Expected18.6 in 100

2NDRunner-up

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.6 in 100

Typical earnings$7,366

Launches460 / 67 hits

Pair trails by1.0 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Dark is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices138 in pair Under $566 in pair $5 to $1041 in pair $10 to $2022 in pair$20 to $409: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 22 games tagged both Dark and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 13.6 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 17.1 for Dark-only games and 14.6 for Visual Novel-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.

Both: 22 games priced $10 to $20; 13.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $8,499.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 22 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynastyleads this pair72.5%

PairThe Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty72.5%

DarkMouthwashing11.5%

Visual NovelUntil Then7.5%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Dark + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty earned 72.5% of the estimated first-year money of the 138 Dark + Visual Novel launches.
Dark is led by Mouthwashing, with 11.5% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by Until Then, with 7.5% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Dark + Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.

Dark + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view131 of 138 launches	Without the breakout137 of 138 launches	Last 18 months85 of 138 launches
Launches counted	1388 hits	1317 hits	1377 hits	853 hits
Earned $100k+	5.8 in 1001 in 17	5.3 in 1001 in 19	5.1 in 1001 in 20	3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings	$1,698top tenth $46,968+	$1,858	$1,618	$1,008
Chance against standard	the yardstick	-8.6%0.5 fewer in 100	-12.1%0.7 fewer in 100	-39.7%2.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	+9.4%$160 more	-4.7%$80 less	-40.6%$690 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Dark and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 138 launches.

Launches counted: 1388 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,698top tenth $46,968+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 138 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1317 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.3 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,858
Chance against standard: -8.6%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +9.4%$160 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (72.5% of the money): 137 launches left.

Launches counted: 1377 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $1,618
Chance against standard: -12.1%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -4.7%$80 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 85 of 138.

Launches counted: 853 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings: $1,008
Chance against standard: -39.7%2.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -40.6%$690 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Dark and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 138 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 138 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (72.5% of the money): 137 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 85 of 138.

Dark holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Dark through every lens, all prices
Dark	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,414 of 1,445 launches	Without the breakout1,444 of 1,445 launches	Last 18 months785 of 1,445 launches
Launches counted	1,44574 hits	1,41472 hits	1,44473 hits	78534 hits
Earned $100k+	5.1 in 1001 in 20	5.1 in 1001 in 20	5.1 in 1001 in 20	4.3 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$849top tenth $28,119+	$887	$849	$808
Chance against standard	the yardstick	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	-15.7%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	+4.5%$38 more	0.0%no change	-4.8%$41 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Dark, 6 to 30 months old: 1,445 launches.

Launches counted: 1,44574 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $849top tenth $28,119+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 31 of 1,445 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,41472 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $887
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: +4.5%$38 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Mouthwashing (11.5% of the money): 1,444 launches left.

Launches counted: 1,44473 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $849
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 785 of 1,445.

Launches counted: 78534 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.3 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $808
Chance against standard: -15.7%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -4.8%$41 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Dark, 6 to 30 months old: 1,445 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 31 of 1,445 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Mouthwashing (11.5% of the money): 1,444 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 785 of 1,445.

Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launches	Without the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launches	Last 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches
Launches counted	2,114130 hits	1,823100 hits	2,113129 hits	1,16263 hits
Earned $100k+	6.1 in 1001 in 16	5.5 in 1001 in 18	6.1 in 1001 in 16	5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings	$1,293top tenth $48,802+	$1,214	$1,287	$910
Chance against standard	the yardstick	-9.8%0.6 fewer in 100	0.0%no change	-11.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	-6.1%$79 less	-0.5%$6 less	-29.6%$383 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.

Launches counted: 2,114130 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.1 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings: $1,293top tenth $48,802+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,823100 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.5 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $1,214
Chance against standard: -9.8%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -6.1%$79 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.

Launches counted: 2,113129 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.1 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings: $1,287
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: -0.5%$6 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.

Launches counted: 1,16263 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $910
Chance against standard: -11.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -29.6%$383 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Dark + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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