Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Detective + Noir
Games tagged both Detective and Noir: 43 indie paid launches, 10 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Detective + Noir priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Detective and is too small to compare with Noir.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Detective + Noir is too small to compare with Detective and is too small to compare with Noir: 6 of its 12 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 23.5 in 100 for Detective and 30.0 in 100 for Noir.
Small sample: 12 launches, 6 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 12 games tagged both Detective and Noir priced $10 to $20. 6 of 12 of them earned $100k+, against 20.4 in 100 for Detective-only games and 3 of 18 for Noir-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Detective alone and is too small to compare with Noir alone.
Both: 12 games priced $10 to $20; 6 of 12 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 11 of 12 launches · $10k+ 9 of 12 launches · $100k+ 6 of 12 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 12 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Detective + Noir is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view42 of 43 launches | Without the breakout42 of 43 launches | Last 18 months13 of 43 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4310 hits | 4210 hits | 429 hits | 135 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 23.3 in 100 | 23.8 in 100 | 21.4 in 100 | 5 of 13too few for a rate |
| Chance of $10k+ | 35 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 70 in 100 | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +2.4%0.6 more in 100 | -7.9%1.8 fewer in 100 | +65.4%15.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Detective and Noir, 12 to 36 months old: 43 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 43 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Precinct (54.3% of the money): 42 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 13 of 43.
Detective is changed recently +1: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.
| Detective | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view484 of 533 launches | Without the breakout532 of 533 launches | Last 18 months135 of 533 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 53350 hits | 48441 hits | 53249 hits | 13517 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.4 in 1001 in 11 | 8.5 in 1001 in 12 | 9.2 in 1001 in 11 | 12.6 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,040top tenth $90,096+ | $1,093 | $1,040 | $1,544 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -9.7%0.9 fewer in 100 | -1.8%0.2 fewer in 100 | +34.2%3.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +5.1%$53 more | 0.0%no change | +48.5%$504 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Detective, 12 to 36 months old: 533 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 49 of 533 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Precinct (13.9% of the money): 532 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 135 of 533.
Noir holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Noir | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view154 of 166 launches | Without the breakout165 of 166 launches | Last 18 months47 of 166 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 16618 hits | 15417 hits | 16517 hits | 478 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 10.8 in 100 | 11.0 in 100 | 10.3 in 100 | 17.0 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,119top tenth $148,965+ | $1,383 | $1,112 | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.8%0.2 more in 100 | -5.0%0.5 fewer in 100 | +57.0%6.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +23.6%$264 more | -0.6%$7 less | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Noir, 12 to 36 months old: 166 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 12 of 166 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Precinct (30.1% of the money): 165 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 47 of 166.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Detective + Noir moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.