Niche

Exploration + Nature

Games tagged both Exploration and Nature: 142 indie paid launches, 16 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Exploration + Nature priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it is about level with Exploration and is about level with Nature.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Exploration + Nature is about level with Exploration and is about level with Nature: 23.5 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.6 in 100 for Exploration and 22.8 in 100 for Nature.

That is about 1.1 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagExploration

20.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.6 in 100

Typical earnings$12,769

Launches880 / 181 hits

A tie, apart by3.0 in 100

TIEA tie

This pairExploration + Nature

23.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds23.5 in 100

$1k+91 in 100

$10k+71 in 100

Launches34 / 8 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoNature

22.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds22.8 in 100

$1k+84 in 100

$10k+58 in 100

Launches79 / 18 hits

A tie, apart by0.7 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Exploration is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices142 in pair Under $563 in pair $5 to $1034 in pair $10 to $2034 in pair $20 to $4011 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 34 games tagged both Exploration and Nature priced $10 to $20. 23.5 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 20.4 in 100 for Exploration-only games and 22.2 in 100 for Nature-only games, so the mix beats Exploration alone and is about level with Nature alone.

Both: 34 games priced $10 to $20; 23.5 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 91 in 100 · $10k+ 71 in 100 · $100k+ 24 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 34 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Sword of the Sealeads this pair18.2%

PairSword of the Sea18.2%

ExplorationHollow Knight: Silksong23.3%

NatureLost Records: Bloom & Rage19.9%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Exploration + Nature

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Sword of the Sea earned 18.2% of the estimated first-year money of the 142 Exploration + Nature launches.
Exploration is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 23.3% of its money.
Nature is led by Lost Records: Bloom & Rage, with 19.9% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Exploration + Nature holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration + Nature through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view140 of 142 launches	Without the breakout141 of 142 launches	Last 18 months38 of 142 launches
Launches counted	14216 hits	14016 hits	14115 hits	385 hits
Earned $100k+	11.3 in 100	11.4 in 100	10.6 in 100	13.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,634top tenth $138,464+	$1,634	$1,625	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+1.4%0.2 more in 100	-5.6%0.6 fewer in 100	+16.8%1.9 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-0.6%$9 less	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Nature, 12 to 36 months old: 142 launches.

Launches counted: 14216 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,634top tenth $138,464+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 142 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 14016 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,634
Chance against standard: +1.4%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Sword of the Sea (18.2% of the money): 141 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 14115 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,625
Chance against standard: -5.6%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.6%$9 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 38 of 142.

Launches counted: 385 hits
Earned $100k+: 13.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +16.8%1.9 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Nature, 12 to 36 months old: 142 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 142 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Sword of the Sea (18.2% of the money): 141 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 38 of 142.

Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration through every lens, all prices
Exploration	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,432 of 4,635 launches	Without the breakout4,634 of 4,635 launches	Last 18 months1,277 of 4,635 launches
Launches counted	4,635375 hits	4,432357 hits	4,634374 hits	1,27799 hits
Earned $100k+	8.1 in 1001 in 12	8.1 in 1001 in 12	8.1 in 1001 in 12	7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$876top tenth $64,081+	$894	$876	$858
Chance against standard	the base	-0.4%no change	-0.2%no change	-4.2%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+2.1%$18 more	0.0%no change	-2.1%$18 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.

Launches counted: 4,635375 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $876top tenth $64,081+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,432357 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $894
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: +2.1%$18 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4,634374 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $876
Chance against standard: -0.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.

Launches counted: 1,27799 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $858
Chance against standard: -4.2%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.1%$18 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.

Nature is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Nature through every lens, all prices
Nature	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view521 of 529 launches	Without the breakout528 of 529 launches	Last 18 months154 of 529 launches
Launches counted	52939 hits	52139 hits	52838 hits	15413 hits
Earned $100k+	7.4 in 1001 in 14	7.5 in 1001 in 13	7.2 in 1001 in 14	8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$608top tenth $43,969+	$601	$608	$762
Chance against standard	the base	+1.5%0.1 more in 100	-2.4%0.2 fewer in 100	+14.5%1.1 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.2%$7 less	0.0%no change	+25.3%$154 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Nature, 12 to 36 months old: 529 launches.

Launches counted: 52939 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $608top tenth $43,969+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 8 of 529 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 52139 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.5 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $601
Chance against standard: +1.5%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: -1.2%$7 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Lost Records: Bloom & Rage (19.9% of the money): 528 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 52838 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $608
Chance against standard: -2.4%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 154 of 529.

Launches counted: 15413 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $762
Chance against standard: +14.5%1.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +25.3%$154 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Nature, 12 to 36 months old: 529 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 8 of 529 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Lost Records: Bloom & Rage (19.9% of the money): 528 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 154 of 529.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Exploration + Nature moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.