Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Historical + Strategy
Historical + Strategy
Games tagged both Historical and Strategy: 164 indie paid launches, 25 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Historical + Strategy priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Historical + Strategy trails both its tags: 15.8 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 22.7 in 100 for Historical and 16.5 in 100 for Strategy.
That is about 0.8 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 38 games tagged both Historical and Strategy priced $10 to $20. 15.8 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 27.1 for Historical-only games and 16.5 for Strategy-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 38 games priced $10 to $20; 15.8 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $19,835.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 38 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Historical + Strategy holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view145 of 164 launches | Without the breakout163 of 164 launches | Last 18 months86 of 164 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 16425 hits | 14525 hits | 16324 hits | 8615 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 15.2 in 100 | 17.2 in 100 | 14.7 in 100 | 17.4 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $4,048top tenth $226,743+ | $4,209 | $4,048 | $4,042 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +13.2%2.0 more in 100 | -3.3%0.5 fewer in 100 | +14.5%2.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +4.0%$161 more | 0.0%no change | -0.1%$6 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and Strategy, 6 to 30 months old: 164 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 19 of 164 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (72.6% of the money): 163 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 86 of 164.
Historical holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Historical | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view395 of 450 launches | Without the breakout449 of 450 launches | Last 18 months228 of 450 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 45057 hits | 39552 hits | 44956 hits | 22828 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 12.7 in 100 | 13.2 in 100 | 12.5 in 100 | 12.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,223top tenth $226,743+ | $2,223 | $2,183 | $1,920 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +3.9%0.5 more in 100 | -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100 | -3.1%0.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -1.8%$40 less | -13.6%$303 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 6 to 30 months old: 450 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 55 of 450 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (49.8% of the money): 449 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 228 of 450.
Strategy holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Strategy | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,988 of 5,391 launches | Without the breakout5,390 of 5,391 launches | Last 18 months3,128 of 5,391 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 5,391337 hits | 4,988308 hits | 5,390336 hits | 3,128178 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.3 in 1001 in 16 | 6.2 in 1001 in 16 | 6.2 in 1001 in 16 | 5.7 in 1001 in 18 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $505top tenth $44,532+ | $545 | $505 | $505 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -1.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -1.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -9.5%0.6 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +7.9%$40 more | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Strategy, 6 to 30 months old: 5,391 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 403 of 5,391 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Spire 2 (17.1% of the money): 5,390 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,128 of 5,391.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Historical + Strategy moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.