Niche

Historical + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Historical and Visual Novel: 58 indie paid launches, 7 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Historical + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Historical and beats Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it beats both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Historical + Visual Novel beats both its tags: 3 of its 11 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 22.7 in 100 for Historical and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.

Small sample: 11 launches, 3 hits.

2NDRunner-up

Tag onemood tagHistorical

22.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds22.7 in 100

Typical earnings$23,478

Launches97 / 22 hits

Pair leads by4.6 in 100

1STWinner

This pairHistorical + Visual Novel

3 of 11launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 11 launches

Typical earnings$50,242

Launches11 / 3 hits

Expected18.6 in 100

3RDThird

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.6 in 100

Typical earnings$7,366

Launches460 / 67 hits

Pair leads by12.7 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Historical is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices58 in pair Under $527 in pair $5 to $1017 in pair $10 to $2011 in pair$20 to $403: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 11 games tagged both Historical and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 27.3 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 22.1 for Historical-only games and 14.3 for Visual Novel-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.

Both: 11 games priced $10 to $20; 27.3 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $50,242.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 11 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynastyleads this pair63.4%

PairThe Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty63.4%

HistoricalManor Lords49.8%

Visual NovelUntil Then7.5%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkChanged recently +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Historical + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty earned 63.4% of the estimated first-year money of the 58 Historical + Visual Novel launches.
Historical is led by Manor Lords, with 49.8% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by Until Then, with 7.5% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Historical + Visual Novel is changed recently +1: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.

Historical + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view40 of 58 launches	Without the breakout57 of 58 launches	Last 18 months27 of 58 launches
Launches counted	587 hits	403 hits	576 hits	272 hits
Earned $100k+	12.1 in 100	7.5 in 1001 in 13	10.5 in 100	7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings	$1,418top tenth $279,567+	$910	$1,315	$782
Chance against standard	the yardstick	-38.0%4.6 fewer in 100	-13.2%1.6 fewer in 100	-38.8%4.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	-35.8%$508 less	-7.3%$103 less	-44.9%$636 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 58 launches.

Launches counted: 587 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,418top tenth $279,567+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 18 of 58 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 403 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.5 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $910
Chance against standard: -38.0%4.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -35.8%$508 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (63.4% of the money): 57 launches left.

Launches counted: 576 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,315
Chance against standard: -13.2%1.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -7.3%$103 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 27 of 58.

Launches counted: 272 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $782
Chance against standard: -38.8%4.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -44.9%$636 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 58 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 18 of 58 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (63.4% of the money): 57 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 27 of 58.

Historical holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Historical through every lens, all prices
Historical	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view395 of 450 launches	Without the breakout449 of 450 launches	Last 18 months228 of 450 launches
Launches counted	45057 hits	39552 hits	44956 hits	22828 hits
Earned $100k+	12.7 in 100	13.2 in 100	12.5 in 100	12.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,223top tenth $226,743+	$2,223	$2,183	$1,920
Chance against standard	the yardstick	+3.9%0.5 more in 100	-1.6%0.2 fewer in 100	-3.1%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	0.0%no change	-1.8%$40 less	-13.6%$303 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 6 to 30 months old: 450 launches.

Launches counted: 45057 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,223top tenth $226,743+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 55 of 450 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 39552 hits
Earned $100k+: 13.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,223
Chance against standard: +3.9%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (49.8% of the money): 449 launches left.

Launches counted: 44956 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,183
Chance against standard: -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.8%$40 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 228 of 450.

Launches counted: 22828 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,920
Chance against standard: -3.1%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -13.6%$303 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 6 to 30 months old: 450 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 55 of 450 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (49.8% of the money): 449 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 228 of 450.

Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launches	Without the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launches	Last 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches
Launches counted	2,114130 hits	1,823100 hits	2,113129 hits	1,16263 hits
Earned $100k+	6.1 in 1001 in 16	5.5 in 1001 in 18	6.1 in 1001 in 16	5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings	$1,293top tenth $48,802+	$1,214	$1,287	$910
Chance against standard	the yardstick	-9.8%0.6 fewer in 100	0.0%no change	-11.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	-6.1%$79 less	-0.5%$6 less	-29.6%$383 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.

Launches counted: 2,114130 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.1 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings: $1,293top tenth $48,802+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,823100 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.5 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $1,214
Chance against standard: -9.8%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -6.1%$79 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.

Launches counted: 2,113129 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.1 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings: $1,287
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: -0.5%$6 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.

Launches counted: 1,16263 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $910
Chance against standard: -11.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -29.6%$383 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Historical + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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