Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Horror + Top-Down: a typical launch earns $162 in its first year
That is the median of 43 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 4 of 68 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 3.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases fell 10% on the year before: 47 against 52.
- One game dominates the figure
- Price
- $162 median of 43 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −43.8% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 47 52 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 149 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 381 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.09%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.05% to 0.14% | 14 ranked of 149 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #1,842 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 1.16xhits against expected | 0.79x to 1.90x | 68 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #1,947 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period. | |||
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window. | |||
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 68
- Hit rate
- 5.9%1.3% to 12.4%
- Expected rate
- 4.5%
- Against expected
- 1.16x0.79x to 1.90x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
68 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $91
- Top tenth
- $7,903
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- −10%
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- CONSCRIPT: Director’s Cut (opens the Steam store)2024 · 2,013 reviews, 90% positiveest. $1.1M
- EMPTY SHELL (opens the Steam store)2023 · 709 reviews, 88% positiveest. $172k
- Endoparasitic 2 (opens the Steam store)2024 · 636 reviews, 86% positiveest. $154k
- Tombwater (opens the Steam store)2026 · 286 reviews, 92% positiveest. $145k
- Bendy: Lone Wolf (opens the Steam store)2025 · 262 reviews, 77% positiveest. $106k
- Chromosome Evil 2 (opens the Steam store)2023 · 252 reviews, 88% positiveest. $102k
- Aooni The Horror of Blueberry Onsen (opens the Steam store)2025 · 293 reviews, 79% positiveest. $65k
- Death of a Wish (opens the Steam store)2024 · 118 reviews, 96% positiveest. $36k
More with Horror
pairs with Horror- Horror + Co-op$7,08089 launches priced, 127 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Online Co-Op$5,819120 launches priced, 169 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Multiplayer$5,680106 launches priced, 172 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Lovecraftian$3,41850 launches priced, 72 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Roguelike$3,33937 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Text-Based$2,83130 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months
More with Top-Down
pairs with Top-Down- Wargame + Top-Down$1,70031 launches priced, 51 releases in 12 months
- City Builder + Top-Down$1,55732 launches priced, 37 releases in 12 months
- Top-Down + Female Protagonist$1,09231 launches priced, 50 releases in 12 months
- Twin Stick Shooter + Top-Down$1,01140 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months
- Roguelike + Top-Down$707143 launches priced, 271 releases in 12 months
- RTS + Top-Down$68543 launches priced, 75 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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