Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Linear + Surreal
Games tagged both Linear and Surreal: 68 indie paid launches, 2 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Linear + Surreal priced under $5. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Linear and trails Surreal; priced under $5 it beats both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Linear + Surreal beats both its tags: 4.4 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.5 in 100 for Linear and 1.7 in 100 for Surreal.
That is 1 in 23, about 8.8 times the 0.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 45 games tagged both Linear and Surreal priced under $5. 4.4 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 0.3 for Linear-only games and 1.3 for Surreal-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 45 games priced under $5; 4.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 23), typical first-year earnings $404.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 45 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Linear + Surreal is one-hit market +1: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view68 of 68 launches | Without the breakout67 of 68 launches | Last 18 months36 of 68 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 682 hits | 682 hits | 671 hits | 361 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.9 in 1001 in 34 | 2.9 in 1001 in 34 | 1.5 in 1001 in 67 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $607top tenth $7,604+ | $607 | $485 | $889 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -48.3%1.4 fewer in 100 | -3.4%0.1 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -20.1%$122 less | +46.5%$282 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Linear and Surreal, 6 to 30 months old: 68 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 68 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, RATSHAKER™ (37.6% of the money): 67 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 36 of 68.
Linear holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Linear | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,153 of 1,188 launches | Without the breakout1,187 of 1,188 launches | Last 18 months639 of 1,188 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,18814 hits | 1,15312 hits | 1,18713 hits | 6399 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.2 in 1001 in 83 | 1.0 in 1001 in 100 | 1.1 in 1001 in 91 | 1.4 in 1001 in 71 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $323top tenth $6,871+ | $323 | $322 | $243 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -16.7%0.2 fewer in 100 | -8.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | +16.7%0.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -0.3%$1 less | -24.8%$80 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Linear, 6 to 30 months old: 1,188 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 35 of 1,188 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Crisol: Theater of Idols (17.3% of the money): 1,187 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 639 of 1,188.
Surreal holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Surreal | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view657 of 678 launches | Without the breakout677 of 678 launches | Last 18 months368 of 678 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 67843 hits | 65742 hits | 67742 hits | 36822 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.3 in 1001 in 16 | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 6.2 in 1001 in 16 | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,271top tenth $50,389+ | $1,214 | $1,271 | $1,271 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.6%0.1 more in 100 | -1.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -4.8%0.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -4.5%$57 less | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 6 to 30 months old: 678 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 21 of 678 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.0% of the money): 677 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 368 of 678.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Linear + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.