Niche

Mystery + RPG

Games tagged both Mystery and RPG: 104 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Mystery + RPG priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Mystery and is about level with RPG; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Mystery and is too small to compare with RPG.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Mystery + RPG is too small to compare with Mystery and is too small to compare with RPG: 5 of its 17 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.3 in 100 for Mystery and 17.6 in 100 for RPG.

Small sample: 17 launches, 5 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagMystery

20.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.3 in 100

Typical earnings$7,666

Launches251 / 51 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairMystery + RPG

5 of 17launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds5 of 17 launches

Typical earnings$23,067

Launches17 / 5 hits

Expected17.6 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoRPG

17.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.6 in 100

Typical earnings$8,454

Launches786 / 138 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Mystery is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices104 in pair Under $555 in pair $5 to $1031 in pair $10 to $2017 in pair$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 17 games tagged both Mystery and RPG priced $10 to $20. 5 of 17 of them earned $100k+, against 19.7 in 100 for Mystery-only games and 17.3 in 100 for RPG-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Mystery alone and is too small to compare with RPG alone.

Both: 17 games priced $10 to $20; 5 of 17 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $23,067.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 17 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Revenge on gold diggersleads this pair69.4%

PairRevenge on gold diggers69.4%

MysteryBlue Prince13.8%

RPGPath of Exile 218.0%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Mystery + RPG

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Revenge on gold diggers earned 69.4% of the estimated first-year money of the 104 Mystery + RPG launches.
Mystery is led by Blue Prince, with 13.8% of its money.
RPG is led by Path of Exile 2, with 18.0% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Mystery + RPG is one-hit market +1: one game earned over half the money, and 1 more lens too.

Mystery + RPG through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view68 of 104 launches	Without the breakout103 of 104 launches	Last 18 months39 of 104 launches
Launches counted	1048 hits	684 hits	1037 hits	396 hits
Earned $100k+	7.7 in 1001 in 13	4 of 68too few for a rate	6.8 in 1001 in 15	15.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$536top tenth $45,226+	$517	$517	$1,072
Chance against standard	the base	-23.5%1.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-11.7%0.9 fewer in 100	+100.0%7.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-3.5%$19 less; too few to tell	-3.5%$19 less	+100.0%$536 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Moves the answer	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 104 launches.

Launches counted: 1048 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $536top tenth $45,226+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 36 of 104 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 684 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 68too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $517
Chance against standard: -23.5%1.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -3.5%$19 less; too few to tell

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Revenge on gold diggers (69.4% of the money): 103 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1037 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.8 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $517
Chance against standard: -11.7%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -3.5%$19 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 39 of 104.

Launches counted: 396 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,072
Chance against standard: +100.0%7.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: +100.0%$536 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 104 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 36 of 104 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Revenge on gold diggers (69.4% of the money): 103 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 39 of 104.

Mystery is audience split +1: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.

Mystery through every lens, all prices
Mystery	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,110 of 1,186 launches	Without the breakout1,185 of 1,186 launches	Last 18 months366 of 1,186 launches
Launches counted	1,18693 hits	1,11078 hits	1,18592 hits	36631 hits
Earned $100k+	7.8 in 1001 in 13	7.0 in 1001 in 14	7.8 in 1001 in 13	8.5 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$1,072top tenth $65,794+	$1,030	$1,065	$669
Chance against standard	the base	-10.4%0.8 fewer in 100	-1.0%0.1 fewer in 100	+8.0%0.6 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-3.9%$42 less	-0.7%$7 less	-37.6%$403 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.

Launches counted: 1,18693 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,072top tenth $65,794+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 76 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,11078 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.0 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,030
Chance against standard: -10.4%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -3.9%$42 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (13.8% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,18592 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,065
Chance against standard: -1.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.7%$7 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 366 of 1,186.

Launches counted: 36631 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.5 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $669
Chance against standard: +8.0%0.6 more in 100
Typical against standard: -37.6%$403 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 76 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (13.8% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 366 of 1,186.

RPG is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

RPG through every lens, all prices
RPG	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,125 of 3,715 launches	Without the breakout3,714 of 3,715 launches	Last 18 months1,018 of 3,715 launches
Launches counted	3,715270 hits	3,125225 hits	3,714269 hits	1,01882 hits
Earned $100k+	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.2 in 1001 in 14	7.2 in 1001 in 14	8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$675top tenth $51,629+	$729	$675	$859
Chance against standard	the base	-0.9%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.3%no change	+10.8%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+8.0%$54 more	0.0%no change	+27.3%$184 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,715 launches.

Launches counted: 3,715270 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $675top tenth $51,629+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 590 of 3,715 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,125225 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $729
Chance against standard: -0.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +8.0%$54 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.0% of the money): 3,714 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,714269 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $675
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,018 of 3,715.

Launches counted: 1,01882 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $859
Chance against standard: +10.8%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard: +27.3%$184 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,715 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 590 of 3,715 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.0% of the money): 3,714 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,018 of 3,715.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Mystery + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.