Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
PvP + 3D: a typical launch earns $293 in its first year
That is the median of 182 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 23 of 344 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 23.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 19% on the year before: 303 against 255.
- Price
- $293 median of 182 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −3.4% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 303 255 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 977 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 2,261 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.44%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.24% to 0.71% | 44 ranked of 978 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #541 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 0.97xhits against expected | 0.73x to 1.30x | 344 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #2,958 of 6,324pairs on this board |
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.
| +6%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −11% to +28% | 91 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,226 of 2,361pairs on this board |
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.
| −7%review growth against same-age games | −19% to +5% | 91 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #2,374 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 344
- Hit rate
- 6.7%4.1% to 9.9%
- Expected rate
- 6.9%
- Against expected
- 0.97x0.73x to 1.30x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
344 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $384
- Top tenth
- $30,533
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +19%
- Against Steam
- −13%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Liar's Bar (opens the Steam store)2024 · 48,761 reviews, 89% positiveest. $6.2M
- Nuclear Option (opens the Steam store)2023 · 10,455 reviews, 95% positiveest. $4.2M
- Gigantic: Rampage Edition (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,796 reviews, 64% positiveest. $1.5M
- FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves (opens the Steam store)2025 · 3,168 reviews, 82% positiveest. $1.2M
- Wild Assault (opens the Steam store)2025 · 3,877 reviews, 68% positiveest. $1.1M
- Backyard Baseball (opens the Steam store)2026 · 1,264 reviews, 80% positiveest. $1M
- ERA ONE (opens the Steam store)2025 · 1,582 reviews, 87% positiveest. $961k
- BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT (opens the Steam store)2024 · 7,911 reviews, 97% positiveest. $799k
More with PvP
pairs with PvP- RPG + PvP$1,53738 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
- PvP + Funny$1,11269 launches priced, 197 releases in 12 months
- PvP + Party Game$1,11243 launches priced, 282 releases in 12 months
- Sports + PvP$92876 launches priced, 150 releases in 12 months
- PvP + Cute$90972 launches priced, 100 releases in 12 months
- Simulation + PvP$81051 launches priced, 114 releases in 12 months
More with 3D
pairs with 3D- 3D + Dark Humor$3,90132 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Cozy$3,23738 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Economy$3,15761 launches priced, 109 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Management$2,196130 launches priced, 192 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + 3D$2,162144 launches priced, 256 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Resource Management$2,02434 launches priced, 66 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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