Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Romance + Visual Novel
Romance + Visual Novel
Games tagged both Romance and Visual Novel: 460 indie paid launches, 33 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Romance + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is level with Romance and beats Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Romance + Visual Novel trails both its tags: 10.5 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 12.7 in 100 for Romance and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.
That is about 0.6 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 143 games tagged both Romance and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 10.5 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 21.1 for Romance-only games and 16.4 for Visual Novel-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 143 games priced $10 to $20; 10.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $7,099.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 143 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Romance + Visual Novel holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view399 of 460 launches | Without the breakout459 of 460 launches | Last 18 months223 of 460 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 46033 hits | 39927 hits | 45932 hits | 22313 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 | 6.8 in 1001 in 15 | 7.0 in 1001 in 14 | 5.8 in 1001 in 17 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,728top tenth $59,192+ | $2,627 | $2,689 | $2,225 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -5.6%0.4 fewer in 100 | -2.8%0.2 fewer in 100 | -19.4%1.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -3.7%$101 less | -1.4%$39 less | -18.4%$503 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Romance and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 460 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 61 of 460 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (32.2% of the money): 459 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 223 of 460.
Romance is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Romance | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view550 of 628 launches | Without the breakout627 of 628 launches | Last 18 months315 of 628 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 62845 hits | 55039 hits | 62744 hits | 31517 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 | 7.1 in 1001 in 14 | 7.0 in 1001 in 14 | 5.4 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,324top tenth $57,655+ | $2,265 | $2,324 | $1,732 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -1.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | -2.8%0.2 fewer in 100 | -25.0%1.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -2.5%$59 less | 0.0%no change | -25.5%$592 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Romance, 6 to 30 months old: 628 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 78 of 628 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Fields of Mistria (24.2% of the money): 627 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 315 of 628.
Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Visual Novel | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launches | Without the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launches | Last 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2,114130 hits | 1,823100 hits | 2,113129 hits | 1,16263 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.4 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,293top tenth $48,802+ | $1,214 | $1,287 | $910 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -9.8%0.6 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -11.5%0.7 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -6.1%$79 less | -0.5%$6 less | -29.6%$383 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Romance + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.