Niche

RPG + Sports

Games tagged both RPG and Sports: 54 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing RPG + Sports priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

RPG + Sports is too small to compare with RPG and is too small to compare with Sports: 0 of its 25 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 2 of 1,595 launches for RPG and 1 of 359 launches for Sports.

Small sample: 25 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneRPG

2 of 1,595launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds2 of 1,595 launches

Typical earnings$130

Launches1,595 / 2 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairRPG + Sports

0 of 25launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 25 launches

$1k+2 of 25 launches

$10k+0 of 25 launches

Launches25 / 0 hits

Expected0.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoSports

1 of 359launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 359 launches

Typical earnings$109

Launches359 / 1 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 230), typical $162, from 14,050 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices54 in pair Under $525 in pair $5 to $1017 in pair$10 to $207: too few$20 to $405: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 25 games tagged both RPG and Sports priced under $5. 0 of 25 of them earned $100k+, against 2 of 1,570 for RPG-only games and 1 of 334 for Sports-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with RPG alone and is too small to compare with Sports alone.

Both: 25 games priced under $5; 0 of 25 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 2 of 25 launches · $10k+ 0 of 25 launches · $100k+ 0 of 25 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 25 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Beastieballleads this pair84.6%

PairBeastieball84.6%

RPGPath of Exile 218.7%

SportsAssetto Corsa EVO22.6%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads RPG + Sports

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Beastieball earned 84.6% of the estimated first-year money of the 54 RPG + Sports launches.
RPG is led by Path of Exile 2, with 18.7% of its money.
Sports is led by Assetto Corsa EVO, with 22.6% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

RPG + Sports is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.

RPG + Sports through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view52 of 54 launches	Without the breakout53 of 54 launches	Last 18 months14 of 54 launches
Launches counted	541 hits	521 hits	530 hits	140 hits
Earned $100k+	1 of 54too few for a rate	1 of 52too few for a rate	0 of 53too few for a rate	0 of 14too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	4 of 54 launchescleared $10k; $1k+ 33 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+3.8%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell	-100.0%1.9 fewer in 100	-100.0%1.9 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both RPG and Sports, 12 to 36 months old: 54 launches.

Launches counted: 541 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 54too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 4 of 54 launchescleared $10k; $1k+ 33 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 54 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 521 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 52too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +3.8%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Beastieball (84.6% of the money): 53 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 530 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 53too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -100.0%1.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 14 of 54.

Launches counted: 140 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 14too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -100.0%1.9 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both RPG and Sports, 12 to 36 months old: 54 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 54 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Beastieball (84.6% of the money): 53 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 14 of 54.

RPG holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

RPG through every lens, all prices
RPG	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,170 of 3,764 launches	Without the breakout3,763 of 3,764 launches	Last 18 months1,023 of 3,764 launches
Launches counted	3,764305 hits	3,170261 hits	3,763304 hits	1,02386 hits
Earned $100k+	8.1 in 1001 in 12	8.2 in 1001 in 12	8.1 in 1001 in 12	8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$696top tenth $68,337+	$769	$696	$858
Chance against standard	the base	+1.6%0.1 more in 100	-0.3%no change	+3.7%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+10.5%$73 more	0.0%no change	+23.3%$162 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,764 launches.

Launches counted: 3,764305 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $696top tenth $68,337+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 594 of 3,764 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,170261 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $769
Chance against standard: +1.6%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +10.5%$73 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.7% of the money): 3,763 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,763304 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $696
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,023 of 3,764.

Launches counted: 1,02386 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $858
Chance against standard: +3.7%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +23.3%$162 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,764 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 594 of 3,764 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.7% of the money): 3,763 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,023 of 3,764.

Sports is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Sports through every lens, all prices
Sports	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view834 of 850 launches	Without the breakout849 of 850 launches	Last 18 months270 of 850 launches
Launches counted	85050 hits	83450 hits	84949 hits	27025 hits
Earned $100k+	5.9 in 1001 in 17	6.0 in 1001 in 17	5.8 in 1001 in 17	9.3 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings	$789top tenth $39,776+	$858	$782	$1,072
Chance against standard	the base	+1.9%0.1 more in 100	-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100	+57.4%3.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+8.7%$69 more	-0.9%$7 less	+35.9%$283 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Sports, 12 to 36 months old: 850 launches.

Launches counted: 85050 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $789top tenth $39,776+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 850 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 83450 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $858
Chance against standard: +1.9%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +8.7%$69 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Assetto Corsa EVO (22.6% of the money): 849 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 84949 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $782
Chance against standard: -1.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.9%$7 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 270 of 850.

Launches counted: 27025 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.3 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,072
Chance against standard: +57.4%3.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: +35.9%$283 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Sports, 12 to 36 months old: 850 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 850 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Assetto Corsa EVO (22.6% of the money): 849 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 270 of 850.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when RPG + Sports moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.