Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Simulation + Open World: a typical launch earns $4,147 in its first year

That is the median of 120 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 52 of 244 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 29.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 39% on the year before: 182 against 131.

Price: $4,147
Price vs a year earlier: −44.3%
Releases, 12 months: 182
Upcoming games: 642
Games on the store: 1,713

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Simulation + Open World on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	1.92%share of upcoming wishlist heat	1.47% to 2.52%	139 ranked of 642 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#114 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.71xhits against expected	1.41x to 2.06x	244 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#372 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+3%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−12% to +26%	116 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,339 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+5%review growth against same-age games	−3% to +15%	116 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#600 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 52
Expected: 29.1

Launches: 244
Hit rate: 21.3%17.1% to 31.2%
Expected rate: 11.9%
Against expected: 1.71x1.41x to 2.06x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

244 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $60
Median: $3,803
Top tenth: $944,826

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 182
Prior 12 months: 131

Change: +39%
Against Steam: +2%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SimulationGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Open WorldNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Simulation

pairs with Simulation

Simulation + Shop Keeper$32,26936 launches priced, 330 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Cozy$15,70676 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Online Co-Op$11,02868 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Multiplayer$8,980122 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Base Building$7,38289 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Economy$6,979210 launches priced, 540 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Simulation

More with Open World

pairs with Open World

Open World + Multiplayer$15,60236 launches priced, 75 releases in 12 months
Open World + Open World Survival Craft$14,79431 launches priced, 35 releases in 12 months
Open World + Life Sim$13,38736 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months
Open World + Crafting$7,48760 launches priced, 105 releases in 12 months
Driving + Open World$6,51131 launches priced, 50 releases in 12 months
Building + Open World$5,98741 launches priced, 61 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Open World

Verdicts

in development

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