Simulation indie launches earn a median $970 in their first year, down 20.1% on a year earlier

Share of all wishlist heat on upcoming Steam games, weighted toward dated, near-term releases.

12.6%

90% interval 10.7% to 14.5%

1,163 ranked upcoming games, wishlist rank 30 Sep 2026

• 23% of the heat is dated within 90 days.
• 36% is undated or TBA.
• 72 long-anticipated pages (top 1,000, public 2+ years).

Total wishlist heat, so big genres lead. Not backtested yet: wishlist-rank history started 30 Sep 2026.

Week-over-week follower growth of upcoming games.

Collecting since 30 Sep, first readings 13 Oct.

Needs 14 days of daily follower counts. Nothing is estimated before then.

How often indie paid launches reached $100k est. revenue, against the rate expected for their price and launch quarter.

up 1.19x

90% interval 1.10x to 1.28x

5,210 launches, indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6-30 months old)

• 434 of 5,210 launches reached $100k, against 364.1 expected.

1.0x is par: the hit rate of launches at the same price and in the same quarter across Steam. Indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old.

Player growth against release growth, relative to Steam overall.

down -20.2%

90% interval -24.6% to -16.2%

1,242 tracked games, Jun to Aug 2026 vs Jun to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months

• 4,943 releases in the last 12 months, 3,026 in the 12 before.
• Player growth vs same-age games: -3.8%.

Fewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.

How much faster this genre’s games gained reviews than same-age games elsewhere, year on year.

down -3.8%

90% interval -6.6% to -0.2%

1,242 tracked games, Jun to Aug 2026 vs Jun to Aug 2025

• 205,642 reviews in the latest window, 146,743 a year earlier (same games).

Gaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.