Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Simulation + Physics: a typical launch earns $607 in its first year

That is the median of 180 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 33 of 377 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 27.5 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 88% on the year before: 377 against 201.

Price: $607
Price vs a year earlier: −33.3%
Releases, 12 months: 377
Upcoming games: 878
Games on the store: 2,316

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Simulation + Physics on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.84%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.64% to 1.09%	96 ranked of 878 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#282 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.18xhits against expected	0.92x to 1.52x	377 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#1,843 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−19%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−32% to −4%	106 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,968 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+11%review growth against same-age games	+1% to +18%	106 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#254 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 33
Expected: 27.5

Launches: 377
Hit rate: 8.8%7.5% to 14.9%
Expected rate: 7.3%
Against expected: 1.18x0.92x to 1.52x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

377 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $848
Top tenth: $92,017

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 377
Prior 12 months: 201

Change: +88%
Against Steam: +37%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SimulationGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
PhysicsNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Simulation

pairs with Simulation

Simulation + Shop Keeper$32,26936 launches priced, 330 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Cozy$15,70676 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Online Co-Op$11,02868 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Multiplayer$8,980122 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Base Building$7,38289 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Economy$6,979210 launches priced, 540 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Simulation

More with Physics

pairs with Physics

Building + Physics$2,16430 launches priced, 52 releases in 12 months
Exploration + Physics$2,06074 launches priced, 123 releases in 12 months
Multiplayer + Physics$1,72852 launches priced, 181 releases in 12 months
Comedy + Physics$1,61742 launches priced, 99 releases in 12 months
Sandbox + Physics$1,24262 launches priced, 145 releases in 12 months
Psychological Horror + Physics$1,11244 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Physics

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.