Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Sports + Realistic: a typical launch earns $1,801 in its first year

That is the median of 50 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 18 of 112 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 19.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 31% on the year before: 84 against 64.

Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games
One game dominates the figure

Price: $1,801
Price vs a year earlier: −34.0%
Releases, 12 months: 84
Upcoming games: 115
Games on the store: 524

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Sports + Realistic on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.04%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.02% to 0.07%	9 ranked of 115 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#2,782 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. One game dominates the figure Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games	0.95xhits against expected	0.70x to 1.28x	112 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,101 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games	0%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−25% to +30%	44 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,448 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games Listed after unflagged rows on this board	−5%review growth against same-age games	−13% to +6%	44 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#2,289 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 18
Expected: 19.1

Launches: 112
Hit rate: 16.1%5.4% to 25.9%
Expected rate: 17.0%
Against expected: 0.95x0.70x to 1.28x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

112 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $22
Median: $1,821
Top tenth: $152,086

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 84
Prior 12 months: 64

Change: +31%
Against Steam: −5%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SportsGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
RealisticNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Sports

pairs with Sports

Sports + Management$5,80333 launches priced, 98 releases in 12 months
Strategy + Sports$2,42899 launches priced, 158 releases in 12 months
Sports + Driving$1,82042 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Sports$1,819193 launches priced, 336 releases in 12 months
Adventure + Sports$1,79496 launches priced, 67 releases in 12 months
Sports + Cute$1,73349 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Sports

More with Realistic

pairs with Realistic

Multiplayer + Realistic$17,04044 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
Realistic + Management$13,70546 launches priced, 74 releases in 12 months
Realistic + Economy$10,95531 launches priced, 37 releases in 12 months
Realistic + Life Sim$6,57659 launches priced, 88 releases in 12 months
Sandbox + Realistic$5,46362 launches priced, 72 releases in 12 months
Thriller + Realistic$3,21454 launches priced, 56 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Realistic

Verdicts

in development

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