Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Surreal + 2D: a typical launch earns $768 in its first year

That is the median of 60 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 5 of 116 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 4.4 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 1% on the year before: 72 against 71.

One game dominates the figure

Price: $768
Price vs a year earlier: −28.4%
Releases, 12 months: 72
Upcoming games: 221
Games on the store: 654

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Surreal + 2D on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.22%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.07% to 0.47%	22 ranked of 221 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#4,963 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. One game dominates the figure	1.08xhits against expected	0.73x to 1.75x	116 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#2,332 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	+31%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	0% to +64%	33 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#471 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	−2%review growth against same-age games	−21% to +14%	33 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#2,088 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 5
Expected: 4.4

Launches: 116
Hit rate: 4.3%1.9% to 6.6%
Expected rate: 3.8%
Against expected: 1.08x0.73x to 1.75x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

116 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $20
Median: $809
Top tenth: $13,974

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 72
Prior 12 months: 71

Change: +1%
Against Steam: −25%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SurrealNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
2DNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Surreal

pairs with Surreal

Surreal + Mystery$4,52440 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Story Rich$3,23865 launches priced, 92 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Psychological Horror$2,906127 launches priced, 153 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Exploration$2,424100 launches priced, 135 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Walking Simulator$1,81971 launches priced, 118 releases in 12 months
Horror + Surreal$1,799122 launches priced, 163 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Surreal

More with 2D

pairs with 2D

2D + Roguelike Deckbuilder$6,77234 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
2D + Romance$3,28176 launches priced, 110 releases in 12 months
War + 2D$3,16035 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
2D + Dating Sim$2,55991 launches priced, 116 releases in 12 months
2D + LGBTQ+$2,46550 launches priced, 85 releases in 12 months
2D + Historical$2,32474 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with 2D

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.