Turn-Based Strategy + Grand Strategy: a typical launch earns $2,498 in its first year

That is the median of 38 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 7 of 68 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 8.4 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 6% on the year before: 55 against 52.

One game dominates the figure

Price: $2,498
Price vs a year earlier: −50.6%
Releases, 12 months: 55
Upcoming games: 124
Games on the store: 485

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Turn-Based Strategy + Grand Strategy on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. One game dominates the figure Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games Listed after unflagged rows on this board	1.05%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.16% to 2.68%	19 ranked of 124 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#4,276 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.87xhits against expected	0.60x to 1.33x	68 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#6,163 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+25%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	0% to +76%	34 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#607 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−2%review growth against same-age games	−11% to +7%	34 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#921 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 7
Expected: 8.4

Launches: 68
Hit rate: 11.6%4.7% to 19.7%
Expected rate: 12.4%
Against expected: 0.87x0.60x to 1.33x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

69 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $52
Median: $2,630
Top tenth: $102,751

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 55
Prior 12 months: 52

Change: +6%
Against Steam: −22%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Turn-Based StrategyGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Grand StrategyGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Turn-Based Strategy

pairs with Turn-Based Strategy

Turn-Based Strategy + Story Rich$8,09741 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
Turn-Based Strategy + Roguelike Deckbuilder$7,14342 launches priced, 61 releases in 12 months
Turn-Based + Turn-Based Strategy$5,79134 launches priced, 60 releases in 12 months
Turn-Based Strategy + Historical$4,04836 launches priced, 59 releases in 12 months
War + Turn-Based Strategy$3,84640 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months
Turn-Based Strategy + Deckbuilding$3,05388 launches priced, 169 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Turn-Based Strategy

More with Grand Strategy

pairs with Grand Strategy

Grand Strategy + Wargame$4,04836 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
RTS + Grand Strategy$2,63033 launches priced, 35 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Grand Strategy$2,63057 launches priced, 121 releases in 12 months
Casual + Grand Strategy$1,31543 launches priced, 40 releases in 12 months
2D + Grand Strategyno price63 releases in 12 months
Real Time Tactics + Grand Strategyno price41 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Grand Strategy

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.