Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Visual Novel + Dating Sim: a typical launch earns $3,227 in its first year

That is the median of 199 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 41 of 381 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 43.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 14% on the year before: 261 against 229.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese

Price: $3,227
Price vs a year earlier: −37.5%
Releases, 12 months: 261
Upcoming games: 620
Games on the store: 1,846

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Dating Sim on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.31%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.19% to 0.51%	59 ranked of 621 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#736 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.94xhits against expected	0.75x to 1.18x	381 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#6,110 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	+19%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	+2% to +45%	121 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#773 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	−1%review growth against same-age games	−9% to +9%	121 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#2,011 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 41
Expected: 43.8

Launches: 381
Hit rate: 10.8%7.3% to 17.1%
Expected rate: 11.5%
Against expected: 0.94x0.75x to 1.18x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

381 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $60
Median: $2,731
Top tenth: $118,112

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 261
Prior 12 months: 229

Change: +14%
Against Steam: −17%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Dating SimGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with Dating Sim

pairs with Dating Sim

Dating Sim + FMV$40,45030 launches priced, 28 releases in 12 months
Dating Sim + LGBTQ+$7,36631 launches priced, 45 releases in 12 months
Dating Sim + Otome$6,91133 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
RPG + Dating Sim$6,63993 launches priced, 145 releases in 12 months
Multiple Endings + Dating Sim$6,57961 launches priced, 96 releases in 12 months
Immersive Sim + Dating Sim$5,95146 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Dating Sim

Verdicts

in development

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