Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Niches / Visual Novel / Emotional
Visual Novel + Emotional: a typical launch earns $2,375 in its first year
That is the median of 116 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 19 of 232 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 17.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 31% on the year before: 190 against 145.
- Price
- $2,375 median of 116 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- +11.8% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 190 145 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 361 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 1,070 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.14%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.11% to 0.18% | 38 ranked of 361 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #1,405 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 1.07xhits against expected | 0.79x to 1.46x | 232 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #2,395 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | +7%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −13% to +31% | 74 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,202 of 2,361pairs on this board |
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | +3%review growth against same-age games | −11% to +15% | 74 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #678 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 232
- Hit rate
- 8.2%5.5% to 15.5%
- Expected rate
- 7.6%
- Against expected
- 1.07x0.79x to 1.46x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
232 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $22
- Median
- $1,974
- Top tenth
- $76,038
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +31%
- Against Steam
- −4%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
- Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
- EmotionalNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
Until Then (opens the Steam store)2024 · 15,814 reviews, 96% positiveest. $6.2M
WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT (opens the Steam store)2023 · 7,312 reviews, 98% positiveest. $4.1M
Sweet Home (opens the Steam store)2025 · 10,073 reviews, 94% positiveest. $919k
GINKA (opens the Steam store)2023 · 2,685 reviews, 91% positiveest. $758k
DevilConnection (opens the Steam store)2025 · 1,962 reviews, 98% positiveest. $662k
Rue Valley (opens the Steam store)2025 · 1,917 reviews, 69% positiveest. $582k
Revue Starlight El Dorado (opens the Steam store)2024 · 943 reviews, 97% positiveest. $573k
OPUS: Prism Peak (opens the Steam store)2026 · 1,085 reviews, 92% positiveest. $549k
More with Visual Novel
pairs with Visual Novel- Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months
More with Emotional
pairs with Emotional- Emotional + Hand-drawn$3,75736 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Emotional$3,130121 launches priced, 200 releases in 12 months
- Emotional + Multiple Endings$3,03442 launches priced, 72 releases in 12 months
- Anime + Emotional$2,67157 launches priced, 94 releases in 12 months
- Cute + Emotional$2,67167 launches priced, 92 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Emotional$2,488136 launches priced, 194 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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