Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Niches / Visual Novel / Interactive Fiction
Visual Novel + Interactive Fiction: a typical launch earns $1,557 in its first year
That is the median of 319 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 48 of 625 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 39.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 27% on the year before: 504 against 397.
- China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese
- Price
- $1,557 median of 319 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- +17.9% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 504 397 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 1,104 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 3,027 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.49%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.31% to 0.72% | 83 ranked of 1,105 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #490 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 1.19xhits against expected | 0.96x to 1.47x | 625 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #5,960 of 6,324pairs on this board |
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.
| +1%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −14% to +17% | 158 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,403 of 2,361pairs on this board |
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.
| −6%review growth against same-age games | −13% to +1% | 158 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #1,091 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 625
- Hit rate
- 7.7%5.8% to 12.6%
- Expected rate
- 6.4%
- Against expected
- 1.19x0.96x to 1.47x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
625 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $22
- Median
- $1,287
- Top tenth
- $66,414
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +27%
- Against Steam
- −7%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
- Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
- Interactive FictionGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
Until Then (opens the Steam store)2024 · 15,814 reviews, 96% positiveest. $6.2M
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (opens the Steam store)2024 · 49,862 reviews, 94% positiveest. $5.8M
I Wani Hug that Gator! (opens the Steam store)2024 · 5,180 reviews, 98% positiveest. $1.6M
No Case Should Remain Unsolved (opens the Steam store)2024 · 10,382 reviews, 96% positiveest. $1.3M
The Mermaid Mask (opens the Steam store)2026 · 2,880 reviews, 99% positiveest. $1.2M
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall (opens the Steam store)2026 · 8,291 reviews, 58% positiveest. $1.2M
School Days (opens the Steam store)2026 · 6,049 reviews, 77% positiveest. $1M
Mandate Of Heaven (opens the Steam store)2025 · 5,466 reviews, 90% positiveest. $967k
More with Visual Novel
pairs with Visual Novel- Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months
More with Interactive Fiction
pairs with Interactive Fiction- Interactive Fiction + FMV$39,86745 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
- Cinematic + Interactive Fiction$4,18748 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Interactive Fiction + LGBTQ+$4,04637 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
- Dating Sim + Interactive Fiction$3,15892 launches priced, 128 releases in 12 months
- Romance + Interactive Fiction$3,13063 launches priced, 96 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Interactive Fiction$2,268207 launches priced, 343 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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