Best niches
All pricesPairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches 1 Oct
Of 2,169 niches with 100+ launches at any price, West-facing view, 833 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.833 of 2,169 niches beat the 1 in 16 base rate.833 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every tag pair (two tags on the same game), screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than the tags do.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewThe West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
2,169 of 5,145 niches have 100+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.
| Rank# | Niche | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | Base Building + Management33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 135 launches | 33 in 10044 hits | $16,148 | not computed | 135 | none | Pin Base Building + Management |
| 2 | Base Building + Sandbox31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 160 launches | 31 in 10050 hits | $7,286 | not computed | 160 | Audience | Pin Base Building + Sandbox |
| 3 | Base Building + Crafting30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 143 launches | 30 in 10043 hits | $18,453 | not computed | 143 | 1-hit | Pin Base Building + Crafting |
| 4 | City Builder + Management30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 127 launches | 30 in 10038 hits | $9,508 | not computed | 127 | 1-hit | Pin City Builder + Management |
| 5 | City Builder + Sandbox29 in 100 earned $100k+, from 133 launches | 29 in 10038 hits | $8,499 | not computed | 133 | 1-hit | Pin City Builder + Sandbox |
| 6 | Base Building + City Builder28 in 100 earned $100k+, from 139 launches | 28 in 10039 hits | $10,924 | not computed | 139 | 1-hit | Pin Base Building + City Builder |
| 7 | City Builder + Colony Sim28 in 100 earned $100k+, from 120 launches | 28 in 10033 hits | $7,589 | not computed | 120 | none | Pin City Builder + Colony Sim |
| 8 | Crafting + Open World27 in 100 earned $100k+, from 121 launches | 27 in 10033 hits | $12,144 | not computed | 121 | 1-hit | Pin Crafting + Open World |
| 9 | Base Building + Exploration27 in 100 earned $100k+, from 122 launches | 27 in 10033 hits | $4,857 | not computed | 122 | Audience | Pin Base Building + Exploration |
| 10 | Base Building + Survival27 in 100 earned $100k+, from 161 launches | 27 in 10043 hits | $9,903 | not computed | 161 | none | Pin Base Building + Survival |
| 11 | City Builder + Resource Management26 in 100 earned $100k+, from 102 launches | 26 in 10027 hits | $7,892 | not computed | 102 | 1-hit | Pin City Builder + Resource Management |
| 12 | Building + Crafting26 in 100 earned $100k+, from 175 launches | 26 in 10046 hits | $5,279 | not computed | 175 | none | Pin Building + Crafting |
| 13 | Co-op + First-Person26 in 100 earned $100k+, from 157 launches | 26 in 10041 hits | $10,408 | not computed | 157 | Audience | Pin Co-op + First-Person |
| 14 | Base Building + Simulation26 in 100 earned $100k+, from 173 launches | 26 in 10045 hits | $7,433 | not computed | 173 | 1-hit | Pin Base Building + Simulation |
| 15 | Exploration + Multiplayer26 in 100 earned $100k+, from 151 launches | 26 in 10039 hits | $8,498 | not computed | 151 | none | Pin Exploration + Multiplayer |
| 16 | Multiplayer + Survival26 in 100 earned $100k+, from 113 launches | 26 in 10029 hits | $5,501 | not computed | 113 | Audience | Pin Multiplayer + Survival |
| 17 | Building + Management25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 263 launches | 25 in 10067 hits | $8,726 | not computed | 263 | none | Pin Building + Management |
| 18 | Management + Sandbox25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 241 launches | 25 in 10061 hits | $10,522 | not computed | 241 | none | Pin Management + Sandbox |
| 19 | Exploration + Online Co-Op25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 131 launches | 25 in 10033 hits | $9,913 | not computed | 131 | none | Pin Exploration + Online Co-Op |
| 20 | Online Co-Op + Simulation25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 125 launches | 25 in 10031 hits | $11,936 | not computed | 125 | none | Pin Online Co-Op + Simulation |
| 21 | Open World + Sandbox24 in 100 earned $100k+, from 197 launches | 24 in 10048 hits | $8,501 | not computed | 197 | none | Pin Open World + Sandbox |
| 22 | Online Co-Op + PvE24 in 100 earned $100k+, from 111 launches | 24 in 10027 hits | $7,485 | not computed | 111 | none | Pin Online Co-Op + PvE |
| 23 | Crafting + Exploration24 in 100 earned $100k+, from 194 launches | 24 in 10047 hits | $4,451 | not computed | 194 | none | Pin Crafting + Exploration |
| 24 | Building + Resource Management24 in 100 earned $100k+, from 128 launches | 24 in 10031 hits | $6,374 | not computed | 128 | 1-hit | Pin Building + Resource Management |
| 25 | Base Building + Building24 in 100 earned $100k+, from 224 launches | 24 in 10054 hits | $4,042 | not computed | 224 | 1-hit | Pin Base Building + Building |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices. A game counts in every pair its tags make.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.