Price guide
Price changes the odds more than genre does. Pick a launch price to see how often indie games there earned $100k or more in their first year, then see which genres did best at that price.
Your launch price
$14.99falls in the $10 to $20 band
At $14.99, among 4,304 launches at $10 to $20
20in 100earned $100k+ in their first year
878 of 4,304 launches (20.4%).
- Typical first year at this price
- $10,978
- Top quarter earned more than
- $66,817
- Top tenth earned more than
- $287,297
All genres, indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old. Data 3 Oct 2026. Sales on Steam before Steam's cut; about 58% of it reaches the developer.
$10 to $20: 20 in 100 launches earned $100k+, typical $10,978. Time Manipulation at $10 to $20: 3 of 21 launches earned $100k+, from 21 launches. Idea check adds tag pairs, earnings and the lens checks.
Check $10 to $20 ideaEach square is 1 launch in 100 at this price. Green ones earned $100k+.
Why price moves the odds this much
Built into the estimate
We estimate revenue as store reviews, times sales per review (28 under $5, 33 at $5 to $10, 40 at $10 and up, set from real published sales), times the price, times the 67.5% of the list price actually paid after discounts and regional prices. That is sales before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax: about 58% of it reaches the developer. So at $4.99 a $100k year takes about 1,060 reviews; at $29.99, about 125.
A pricier game needs fewer players to count as a hit. That part of the gap is arithmetic.
Real behaviour
Higher prices usually mean bigger, more finished games. 52 in 100 launches in this data cost under $5, many of them small first releases.
That part of the gap is about the games, not the sums. This data cannot yet say how big each part is, so compare games at the same price.
Best genres at my price
Every genre ranked by how often its launches earned $100k+ at one price. Click a row to make it your genre.
Time Manipulation has 21 launches at $10 to $20, under the 30 needed to rank here.
Your genre: Time Manipulation, 90 launches at all prices. Open the Time Manipulation page
Amber line on each bar: all genres at $10 to $20. With 156 genres in the list, some reach the top by luck. "one hit" means one game holds over half the genre's revenue; "audience" means the West-facing view moves its typical earnings by more than 25%, with 100+ launches in the view; "small" means under 30 launches or 5 hits at this price, shown as a count and could be luck. Both checks are at all prices.