Cozy

A price band needs 30 launches to be read on this page (the Sample filter; never under 10). Below that the page says "too few" instead of a figure, and under 30 a chance is written as a count, such as "10 of 20 launches".

Even at 30 launches, one extra hit moves the chance by over 3 in 100, so treat close figures as equal. Here: $20 to $40 has 13. Pairs need 30+ launches to be ranked: 10 of 31 qualify.

Revenue is estimated from reviews times price, so a dearer game reaches $100k with fewer reviews. That makes odds climb with price in every genre. All genres: 0.5 in 100 under $5, 3.8 in 100 $5 to $10, 18.6 in 100 $10 to $20, 42.4 in 100 $20 to $40.

So compare odds within a price band. "Expected at its prices" is the chance this genre would have if each of its launches did as well as all games at the same price: 5.7 in 100.

A hit is an estimated first-year revenue of $100k or more: store reviews x a reviews-to-sales multiplier x price x the share the studio keeps, with a regional price adjustment (games sold mostly to Chinese-speaking players earn less per sale, because regional prices are lower).

Nobody publishes the true multiplier. Across its likely range the all-genre chance moves from 4.8 to 8.4 in 100, and a third of all hits sit within 2x of the $100k line. Read every chance as "about": this genre is about 14 in 100.

Half of the launches earned more, half less. One huge hit cannot move it, which is why this page uses medians, not averages.

The all-genre figure beside it is the cohort median ($606, 29,637 launches). "Typical, last 4 quarters" further down is a different measure, named for what it is.

With about 300 genres, chance alone gives the best one a lead near 1.8 times its expected odds (2.05 times for the top 5 in 100).

Cozy beats its prices about 2.4 times (actual 13.5 in 100, expected 5.7 in 100), over 2.05, more than luck alone usually produces. The Best pairs card applies the same lines to each pair.

Each lens reruns the figures on a slice of the launches. Standard is the yardstick: every launch in the cohort. It is not a lens that can hold or move.

A lens holds when its chance of $100k+ and its typical earnings both stay within 25% of the standard. Otherwise it moves the answer, and every card's lens check names it. Pips: green holds, coral moves, grey not run.

Lens figures cover all prices; they are not split by price band yet.

The West-facing view keeps games mostly reviewed outside China: it sets aside games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese (5 of 651 here).

Steam reports review language only for games with 2,000+ reviews, so for most small games this share is estimated from review language. The audience split is genre-specific: leaving those games out changes typical earnings 53% in FMV and 19% in Dating Sim, yet barely moves the all-genre chance (6.1 to 6.0 in 100).

Here typical earnings move -0.8%, inside the 25% rule; 9% of its revenue-weighted reviews are in Chinese.

Last 18 months keeps launches 18 months old or newer (431 of 651). Tastes move: only 9 of the top 15 genres by hit rate stay top 15 on recent launches.

When the two disagree, prefer the recent figure. Here: 11.6 in 100 against 13.5 in 100, typical $1,942 against $2,119, within the rule.

A genre is one-hit when one game holds over half its money. Across genres the top game holds 29% in the median genre and the top tenth of games 94%; 57 genres have one game over half.

No single game dominates: the biggest, Hello Kitty Island Adventure, holds 10% of its money. Totals and shares are safe to read here. Without it, 13.4 in 100 still hit $100k+.

New launches count every store game with the tag released in each 12 months, not only the indie cohort, from the store export of 30 Sep 2026.

809 against 349 is +131.8%: more games now compete for the same players. Earlier years and a life-cycle stage are not computed yet.

1,791 store pages carry the tag and can be wishlisted. 123 are on Steam's wishlist chart.

A date counts as verified only when the release-calendar job checked it against the live store, for the next 90 days. Other dates are as the store lists them.

Cozy is a mood tag today, so the boards do not rank it. Mood tags with real markets, like Cozy, become genres once they have enough launches; the data track computes their board figures. Until then each missing figure says "not computed yet".

Lens figures by price band: the cohort file does not split lenses by price yet.

Life-cycle stage: needs launch counts further back than two years.

Gaining fast: follower readings started 30 Sep; first readings 13 Oct.

An outside check: the backtest scores predictions against the same review-based estimate, so it shows review counts are predictable, not revenue. Fixing that needs outside sales data.