Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

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All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 263 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,738 launches. 263 match.

Hide one-hit markets50 out Hide small samples23 out

263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

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Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Spellingnone of 107 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$273	not computed	107	none	Pin Spelling
2	Chessnone of 59 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$404	not computed	59	none	Pin Chess
3	6DOFnone of 56 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$364	not computed	56	none	Pin 6DOF
4	Boxingnone of 52 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$809	not computed	52	Audience	Pin Boxing
5	Basketballnone of 49 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$1,090	not computed	49	SmallAudience	Pin Basketball
6	Submarinenone of 39 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$725	not computed	39	Small	Pin Submarine
7	Mini Golfnone of 38 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$1,209	not computed	38	Small	Pin Mini Golf
8	Time Attacknone of 36 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$443	not computed	36	1-hitSmall	Pin Time Attack
9	Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 33 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$485	not computed	33	Small	Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
10	Billiardsnone of 32 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$281	not computed	32	Small	Pin Billiards
11	Solitaire1 in 210 earned $100k+, from 210 launches	1 in 2101 hit	$303	not computed	210	1-hitAudience	Pin Solitaire
12	Match 31 in 142 earned $100k+, from 283 launches	1 in 1422 hits	$121	not computed	283	1-hit	Pin Match 3
13	Trivia1 in 131 earned $100k+, from 131 launches	1 in 1311 hit	$161	not computed	131	none	Pin Trivia
14	Sokoban1 in 121 earned $100k+, from 243 launches	1 in 1212 hits	$404	not computed	243	Audience	Pin Sokoban
15	Traditional Roguelike1 in 108 earned $100k+, from 108 launches	1 in 1081 hit	$361	not computed	108	1-hitAudience	Pin Traditional Roguelike
16	Runner1 in 95 earned $100k+, from 569 launches	1 in 956 hits	$121	not computed	569	1-hit	Pin Runner
17	Hidden Object1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 1,766 launches	1 in 7125 hits	$541	not computed	1,766	none	Pin Hidden Object
18	3D Fighter1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 345 launches	1 in 695 hits	$202	not computed	345	none	Pin 3D Fighter
19	Snow1 in 65 earned $100k+, from 65 launches	1 in 651 hit	$607	not computed	65	none	Pin Snow
20	Precision Platformer1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 947 launches	1 in 6315 hits	$303	not computed	947	none	Pin Precision Platformer
21	Score Attack1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 629 launches	1 in 6310 hits	$202	not computed	629	none	Pin Score Attack
22	Aliens1 in 58 earned $100k+, from 292 launches	1 in 585 hits	$242	not computed	292	none	Pin Aliens
23	Arena Shooter1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 542 launches	1 in 5410 hits	$252	not computed	542	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
24	Golf1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 54 launches	1 in 541 hit	$707	not computed	54	1-hitAudience	Pin Golf
25	Combat Racing1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 196 launches	1 in 494 hits	$405	not computed	196	none	Pin Combat Racing
26	Shoot 'Em Up1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 927 launches	1 in 4919 hits	$282	not computed	927	none	Pin Shoot 'Em Up
27	Jump Scare1 in 47 earned $100k+, from 47 launches	1 in 471 hit	$1,249	not computed	47	Small	Pin Jump Scare
28	Mystery Dungeon1 in 45 earned $100k+, from 271 launches	1 in 456 hits	$303	not computed	271	Audience	Pin Mystery Dungeon
29	Experimental1 in 45 earned $100k+, from 89 launches	1 in 452 hits	$1,557	not computed	89	1-hit	Pin Experimental
30	Quick-Time Events1 in 44 earned $100k+, from 87 launches	1 in 442 hits	$202	not computed	87	none	Pin Quick-Time Events
31	Text-Based1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 732 launches	1 in 4317 hits	$615	not computed	732	Audience	Pin Text-Based
32	Logic1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 990 launches	1 in 4323 hits	$303	not computed	990	none	Pin Logic
33	Trading Card Game1 in 42 earned $100k+, from 126 launches	1 in 423 hits	$404	not computed	126	1-hit	Pin Trading Card Game
34	Arcade1 in 41 earned $100k+, from 4,044 launches	1 in 4198 hits	$243	not computed	4,044	none	Pin Arcade
35	On-Rails Shooter1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 80 launches	1 in 402 hits	$443	not computed	80	none	Pin On-Rails Shooter
36	Pinball1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 39 launches	1 in 391 hit	$1,213	not computed	39	1-hitSmall	Pin Pinball
37	Dynamic Narration1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 77 launches	1 in 392 hits	$424	not computed	77	1-hit	Pin Dynamic Narration
38	Faith1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 77 launches	1 in 392 hits	$484	not computed	77	none	Pin Faith
39	2D Fighter1 in 38 earned $100k+, from 461 launches	1 in 3812 hits	$121	not computed	461	Audience	Pin 2D Fighter
40	Word Game1 in 38 earned $100k+, from 420 launches	1 in 3811 hits	$505	not computed	420	Audience	Pin Word Game
41	Puzzle Platformer1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 1,193 launches	1 in 3732 hits	$243	not computed	1,193	Audience	Pin Puzzle Platformer
42	Steampunk1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	1 in 372 hits	$889	not computed	74	none	Pin Steampunk
43	2D Platformer1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 2,737 launches	1 in 3675 hits	$202	not computed	2,737	none	Pin 2D Platformer
44	Top-Down Shooter1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 910 launches	1 in 3625 hits	$243	not computed	910	Audience	Pin Top-Down Shooter
45	Grid-Based Movement1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 253 launches	1 in 367 hits	$404	not computed	253	none	Pin Grid-Based Movement
46	Battle Royale1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 140 launches	1 in 354 hits	$202	not computed	140	1-hit	Pin Battle Royale
47	Perma Death1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 453 launches	1 in 3513 hits	$606	not computed	453	none	Pin Perma Death
48	1980s1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 522 launches	1 in 3515 hits	$242	not computed	522	none	Pin 1980s
49	Dogs1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 138 launches	1 in 354 hits	$403	not computed	138	none	Pin Dogs
50	Hero Shooter1 in 34 earned $100k+, from 136 launches	1 in 344 hits	$202	not computed	136	none	Pin Hero Shooter
51	Underground1 in 33 earned $100k+, from 130 launches	1 in 334 hits	$405	not computed	130	Audience	Pin Underground
52	Hex Grid1 in 32 earned $100k+, from 96 launches	1 in 323 hits	$727	not computed	96	Audience	Pin Hex Grid
53	Motorbike1 in 32 earned $100k+, from 32 launches	1 in 321 hit	$581	not computed	32	1-hitSmall	Pin Motorbike
54	Space Sim1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 242 launches	1 in 308 hits	$364	not computed	242	Audience	Pin Space Sim
55	Bullet Hell1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 1,495 launches	1 in 3050 hits	$485	not computed	1,495	1-hit	Pin Bullet Hell
56	Tabletop1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 567 launches	1 in 3019 hits	$301	not computed	567	none	Pin Tabletop
57	Parkour1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 409 launches	1 in 2914 hits	$363	not computed	409	Audience	Pin Parkour
58	3D Platformer1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 1,723 launches	1 in 2959 hits	$242	not computed	1,723	none	Pin 3D Platformer
59	Party Game1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 262 launches	1 in 299 hits	$647	not computed	262	none	Pin Party Game
60	Dialogue Heavy1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 320 launches	1 in 2911 hits	$970	not computed	320	none	Pin Dialogue Heavy
61	Incremental1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 1,413 launches	1 in 2949 hits	$364	not computed	1,413	none	Pin Incremental
62	Walking Simulator1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 1,602 launches	1 in 2956 hits	$1,007	not computed	1,602	none	Pin Walking Simulator
63	Puzzle1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 5,738 launches	1 in 28202 hits	$443	not computed	5,738	none	Pin Puzzle
64	Board Game1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 701 launches	1 in 2825 hits	$242	not computed	701	none	Pin Board Game
65	4 Player Local1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 223 launches	1 in 288 hits	$809	not computed	223	1-hit	Pin 4 Player Local
66	Archery1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 54 launches	1 in 272 hits	$566	not computed	54	none	Pin Archery
67	Supernatural1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 428 launches	1 in 2716 hits	$1,294	not computed	428	none	Pin Supernatural
68	God Game1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 183 launches	1 in 267 hits	$484	not computed	183	Audience	Pin God Game
69	Platformer1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 2,584 launches	1 in 2699 hits	$321	not computed	2,584	1-hit	Pin Platformer
70	Bullet Time1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 104 launches	1 in 264 hits	$606	not computed	104	none	Pin Bullet Time
71	Time Manipulation1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 104 launches	1 in 264 hits	$970	not computed	104	none	Pin Time Manipulation
72	Escape Room1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 129 launches	1 in 265 hits	$970	not computed	129	none	Pin Escape Room
73	Cats1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 580 launches	1 in 2523 hits	$846	not computed	580	1-hit	Pin Cats
74	Ninja1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 75 launches	1 in 253 hits	$242	not computed	75	1-hit	Pin Ninja
75	Party1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	1 in 253 hits	$1,619	not computed	74	1-hit	Pin Party
76	Magic1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 588 launches	1 in 2524 hits	$606	not computed	588	none	Pin Magic
77	Underwater1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 147 launches	1 in 256 hits	$725	not computed	147	Audience	Pin Underwater
78	Point & Click1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 1,980 launches	1 in 2481 hits	$561	not computed	1,980	none	Pin Point & Click
79	Real Time Tactics1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 573 launches	1 in 2424 hits	$304	not computed	573	Audience	Pin Real Time Tactics
80	Artificial Intelligence1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 234 launches	1 in 2310 hits	$341	not computed	234	Audience	Pin Artificial Intelligence
81	Collectathon1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 878 launches	1 in 2338 hits	$685	not computed	878	1-hit	Pin Collectathon
82	Demons1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 367 launches	1 in 2316 hits	$566	not computed	367	none	Pin Demons
83	Comic Book1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 354 launches	1 in 2216 hits	$595	not computed	354	none	Pin Comic Book
84	Thriller1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 585 launches	1 in 2227 hits	$1,276	not computed	585	none	Pin Thriller
85	Twin Stick Shooter1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 298 launches	1 in 2114 hits	$909	not computed	298	none	Pin Twin Stick Shooter
86	Psychedelic1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 315 launches	1 in 2115 hits	$1,010	not computed	315	none	Pin Psychedelic
87	Hacking1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 84 launches	1 in 214 hits	$809	not computed	84	none	Pin Hacking
88	Space1 in 20 earned $100k+, from 761 launches	1 in 2038 hits	$324	not computed	761	none	Pin Space
89	Memes1 in 20 earned $100k+, from 160 launches	1 in 208 hits	$606	not computed	160	none	Pin Memes
90	Rhythm1 in 20 earned $100k+, from 374 launches	1 in 2019 hits	$405	not computed	374	none	Pin Rhythm
91	Racing1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 837 launches	1 in 1943 hits	$324	not computed	837	none	Pin Racing
92	Choose Your Own Adventure1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 1,155 launches	1 in 1960 hits	$899	not computed	1,155	none	Pin Choose Your Own Adventure
93	Flight1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 338 launches	1 in 1918 hits	$261	not computed	338	none	Pin Flight
94	Parody 1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 150 launches	1 in 198 hits	$405	not computed	150	none	Pin Parody
95	Action-Adventure1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 3,591 launches	1 in 19193 hits	$404	not computed	3,591	none	Pin Action-Adventure
96	Voxel1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 130 launches	1 in 197 hits	$606	not computed	130	Audience	Pin Voxel
97	Psychological Horror1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 2,499 launches	1 in 19135 hits	$1,314	not computed	2,499	none	Pin Psychological Horror
98	Beat 'em up1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 442 launches	1 in 1824 hits	$303	not computed	442	none	Pin Beat 'em up
99	Idler1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 1,211 launches	1 in 1866 hits	$707	not computed	1,211	none	Pin Idler
100	Superhero1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 55 launches	1 in 183 hits	$1,416	not computed	55	1-hit	Pin Superhero

Show 25 moreShowing 100 of 263 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.