Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months Reset

The Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 149 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Open World Survival Craft, $25,194 typical. 238 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: FMV, 25 in 100. 83 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Strategy, 3,128 launches. 238 match.

Hide one-hit markets51 out Hide small samples65 out

266 of 266 genres have 10+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

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Genres at any price, Last 18 months, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Hex Gridnone of 51 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$800	not computed	51	Audience	Pin Hex Grid
2	Chessnone of 38 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$404	not computed	38	Small	Pin Chess
3	Snownone of 32 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$545	not computed	32	Small	Pin Snow
4	Pinballnone of 27 launches earned $100k+	0 of 27no hits	$1,112	not computed	27	1-hitSmall	Pin Pinball
5	Mini Golfnone of 25 launches earned $100k+	0 of 25no hits	$564	not computed	25	Small	Pin Mini Golf
6	6DOFnone of 22 launches earned $100k+	0 of 22no hits	$364	not computed	22	Small	Pin 6DOF
7	Billiardsnone of 17 launches earned $100k+	0 of 17no hits	$60	not computed	17	Small	Pin Billiards
8	Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 12 launches earned $100k+	0 of 12no hits	$403	not computed	12	Small	Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
9	Sokoban1 in 127 earned $100k+, from 127 launches	1 in 1271 hit	$400	not computed	127	Audience	Pin Sokoban
10	Solitaire1 in 113 earned $100k+, from 113 launches	1 in 1131 hit	$202	not computed	113	1-hitAudience	Pin Solitaire
11	Word Game1 in 84 earned $100k+, from 253 launches	1 in 843 hits	$421	not computed	253	Audience	Pin Word Game
12	Traditional Roguelike1 in 82 earned $100k+, from 82 launches	1 in 821 hit	$324	not computed	82	1-hitAudience	Pin Traditional Roguelike
13	Precision Platformer1 in 73 earned $100k+, from 513 launches	1 in 737 hits	$242	not computed	513	none	Pin Precision Platformer
14	Match 31 in 73 earned $100k+, from 146 launches	1 in 732 hits	$100	not computed	146	1-hit	Pin Match 3
15	Score Attack1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 353 launches	1 in 715 hits	$241	not computed	353	none	Pin Score Attack
16	Dogs1 in 70 earned $100k+, from 70 launches	1 in 701 hit	$403	not computed	70	none	Pin Dogs
17	Text-Based1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 411 launches	1 in 696 hits	$484	not computed	411	Audience	Pin Text-Based
18	Spelling1 in 62 earned $100k+, from 62 launches	1 in 621 hit	$363	not computed	62	none	Pin Spelling
19	Runner1 in 59 earned $100k+, from 296 launches	1 in 595 hits	$121	not computed	296	1-hit	Pin Runner
20	Arena Shooter1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 284 launches	1 in 575 hits	$242	not computed	284	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
21	Hidden Object1 in 55 earned $100k+, from 937 launches	1 in 5517 hits	$424	not computed	937	none	Pin Hidden Object
22	Experimental1 in 53 earned $100k+, from 53 launches	1 in 531 hit	$822	not computed	53	1-hit	Pin Experimental
23	Aliens1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 153 launches	1 in 513 hits	$162	not computed	153	none	Pin Aliens
24	On-Rails Shooter1 in 50 earned $100k+, from 50 launches	1 in 501 hit	$485	not computed	50	none	Pin On-Rails Shooter
25	3D Fighter1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 195 launches	1 in 494 hits	$202	not computed	195	none	Pin 3D Fighter

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 266 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.