Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

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All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months 30+ launches Reset

The Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 149 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Open World Survival Craft, $25,194 typical. 238 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: FMV, 25 in 100. 83 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Strategy, 3,128 launches. 238 match.

Hide one-hit markets39 out Hide small samples37 out

238 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

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Genres at any price, Last 18 months, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Hex Gridnone of 51 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$800	not computed	51	Audience	Pin Hex Grid
2	Chessnone of 38 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$404	not computed	38	Small	Pin Chess
3	Snownone of 32 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$545	not computed	32	Small	Pin Snow
4	Sokoban1 in 127 earned $100k+, from 127 launches	1 in 1271 hit	$400	not computed	127	Audience	Pin Sokoban
5	Solitaire1 in 113 earned $100k+, from 113 launches	1 in 1131 hit	$202	not computed	113	1-hitAudience	Pin Solitaire
6	Word Game1 in 84 earned $100k+, from 253 launches	1 in 843 hits	$421	not computed	253	Audience	Pin Word Game
7	Traditional Roguelike1 in 82 earned $100k+, from 82 launches	1 in 821 hit	$324	not computed	82	1-hitAudience	Pin Traditional Roguelike
8	Precision Platformer1 in 73 earned $100k+, from 513 launches	1 in 737 hits	$242	not computed	513	none	Pin Precision Platformer
9	Match 31 in 73 earned $100k+, from 146 launches	1 in 732 hits	$100	not computed	146	1-hit	Pin Match 3
10	Score Attack1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 353 launches	1 in 715 hits	$241	not computed	353	none	Pin Score Attack
11	Dogs1 in 70 earned $100k+, from 70 launches	1 in 701 hit	$403	not computed	70	none	Pin Dogs
12	Text-Based1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 411 launches	1 in 696 hits	$484	not computed	411	Audience	Pin Text-Based
13	Spelling1 in 62 earned $100k+, from 62 launches	1 in 621 hit	$363	not computed	62	none	Pin Spelling
14	Runner1 in 59 earned $100k+, from 296 launches	1 in 595 hits	$121	not computed	296	1-hit	Pin Runner
15	Arena Shooter1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 284 launches	1 in 575 hits	$242	not computed	284	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
16	Hidden Object1 in 55 earned $100k+, from 937 launches	1 in 5517 hits	$424	not computed	937	none	Pin Hidden Object
17	Experimental1 in 53 earned $100k+, from 53 launches	1 in 531 hit	$822	not computed	53	1-hit	Pin Experimental
18	Aliens1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 153 launches	1 in 513 hits	$162	not computed	153	none	Pin Aliens
19	On-Rails Shooter1 in 50 earned $100k+, from 50 launches	1 in 501 hit	$485	not computed	50	none	Pin On-Rails Shooter
20	3D Fighter1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 195 launches	1 in 494 hits	$202	not computed	195	none	Pin 3D Fighter
21	Grid-Based Movement1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 145 launches	1 in 483 hits	$405	not computed	145	none	Pin Grid-Based Movement
22	Swordplay1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 48 launches	1 in 481 hit	$303	not computed	48	1-hitSmall	Pin Swordplay
23	Steampunk1 in 45 earned $100k+, from 45 launches	1 in 451 hit	$909	not computed	45	Small	Pin Steampunk
24	2D Platformer1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 1,430 launches	1 in 4333 hits	$201	not computed	1,430	none	Pin 2D Platformer
25	Puzzle Platformer1 in 42 earned $100k+, from 637 launches	1 in 4215 hits	$242	not computed	637	Audience	Pin Puzzle Platformer
26	Shoot 'Em Up1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 485 launches	1 in 4012 hits	$202	not computed	485	none	Pin Shoot 'Em Up
27	Logic1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 524 launches	1 in 4013 hits	$242	not computed	524	none	Pin Logic
28	Faith1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 40 launches	1 in 401 hit	$605	not computed	40	Small	Pin Faith
29	Arcade1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 2,226 launches	1 in 3957 hits	$242	not computed	2,226	none	Pin Arcade
30	2D Fighter1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 271 launches	1 in 397 hits	$61	not computed	271	Audience	Pin 2D Fighter
31	Trivia1 in 38 earned $100k+, from 75 launches	1 in 382 hits	$161	not computed	75	none	Pin Trivia
32	Dystopian 1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 111 launches	1 in 373 hits	$485	not computed	111	none	Pin Dystopian
33	Tabletop1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 326 launches	1 in 369 hits	$242	not computed	326	none	Pin Tabletop
34	Battle Royale1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 72 launches	1 in 362 hits	$182	not computed	72	1-hit	Pin Battle Royale
35	Space Sim1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 141 launches	1 in 354 hits	$323	not computed	141	Audience	Pin Space Sim
36	Ninja1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 35 launches	1 in 351 hit	$242	not computed	35	1-hitSmall	Pin Ninja
37	Mystery Dungeon1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 139 launches	1 in 354 hits	$303	not computed	139	Audience	Pin Mystery Dungeon
38	Perma Death1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 242 launches	1 in 357 hits	$526	not computed	242	none	Pin Perma Death
39	Comic Book1 in 34 earned $100k+, from 171 launches	1 in 345 hits	$405	not computed	171	none	Pin Comic Book
40	Top-Down Shooter1 in 34 earned $100k+, from 478 launches	1 in 3414 hits	$202	not computed	478	Audience	Pin Top-Down Shooter
41	Escape Room1 in 33 earned $100k+, from 66 launches	1 in 332 hits	$971	not computed	66	none	Pin Escape Room
42	Basketball1 in 33 earned $100k+, from 33 launches	1 in 331 hit	$969	not computed	33	SmallAudience	Pin Basketball
43	Boxing1 in 33 earned $100k+, from 33 launches	1 in 331 hit	$911	not computed	33	SmallAudience	Pin Boxing
44	Medical Sim1 in 33 earned $100k+, from 33 launches	1 in 331 hit	$856	not computed	33	SmallAudience	Pin Medical Sim
45	Walking Simulator1 in 32 earned $100k+, from 889 launches	1 in 3228 hits	$808	not computed	889	none	Pin Walking Simulator
46	Bullet Hell1 in 31 earned $100k+, from 814 launches	1 in 3126 hits	$425	not computed	814	1-hit	Pin Bullet Hell
47	Demons1 in 31 earned $100k+, from 187 launches	1 in 316 hits	$505	not computed	187	none	Pin Demons
48	Party Game1 in 31 earned $100k+, from 187 launches	1 in 316 hits	$606	not computed	187	none	Pin Party Game
49	Supernatural1 in 31 earned $100k+, from 218 launches	1 in 317 hits	$1,263	not computed	218	none	Pin Supernatural
50	Puzzle1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 3,111 launches	1 in 29106 hits	$405	not computed	3,111	none	Pin Puzzle
51	Combat Racing1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 115 launches	1 in 294 hits	$364	not computed	115	none	Pin Combat Racing
52	Board Game1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 399 launches	1 in 2914 hits	$242	not computed	399	none	Pin Board Game
53	Dark Comedy1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 114 launches	1 in 294 hits	$1,090	not computed	114	none	Pin Dark Comedy
54	3D Platformer1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 915 launches	1 in 2833 hits	$223	not computed	915	none	Pin 3D Platformer
55	Cats1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 332 launches	1 in 2812 hits	$728	not computed	332	1-hit	Pin Cats
56	Time Management1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 495 launches	1 in 2818 hits	$546	not computed	495	none	Pin Time Management
57	Platformer1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 1,343 launches	1 in 2749 hits	$281	not computed	1,343	1-hit	Pin Platformer
58	Trading Card Game1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 82 launches	1 in 273 hits	$405	not computed	82	1-hit	Pin Trading Card Game
59	Underwater1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 80 launches	1 in 273 hits	$808	not computed	80	Audience	Pin Underwater
60	LGBTQ+1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 208 launches	1 in 268 hits	$1,938	not computed	208	none	Pin LGBTQ+
61	Point & Click1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 1,107 launches	1 in 2643 hits	$485	not computed	1,107	none	Pin Point & Click
62	1980s1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 283 launches	1 in 2611 hits	$282	not computed	283	none	Pin 1980s
63	Parkour1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 226 launches	1 in 259 hits	$404	not computed	226	Audience	Pin Parkour
64	Real Time Tactics1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 320 launches	1 in 2513 hits	$304	not computed	320	Audience	Pin Real Time Tactics
65	Typing1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 146 launches	1 in 246 hits	$364	not computed	146	none	Pin Typing
66	Psychological Horror1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 1,334 launches	1 in 2456 hits	$1,112	not computed	1,334	none	Pin Psychological Horror
67	Flight1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 190 launches	1 in 248 hits	$263	not computed	190	none	Pin Flight
68	Collectathon1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 494 launches	1 in 2421 hits	$606	not computed	494	1-hit	Pin Collectathon
69	Dialogue Heavy1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 185 launches	1 in 238 hits	$846	not computed	185	none	Pin Dialogue Heavy
70	Memes1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 92 launches	1 in 234 hits	$546	not computed	92	none	Pin Memes
71	Philosophical1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 137 launches	1 in 236 hits	$605	not computed	137	Audience	Pin Philosophical
72	Space1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 410 launches	1 in 2318 hits	$323	not computed	410	none	Pin Space
73	Otome1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 45 launches	1 in 232 hits	$2,530	not computed	45	Small	Pin Otome
74	Incremental1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 896 launches	1 in 2240 hits	$404	not computed	896	none	Pin Incremental
75	Hero Shooter1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 67 launches	1 in 223 hits	$303	not computed	67	none	Pin Hero Shooter
76	Time Travel1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 44 launches	1 in 222 hits	$766	not computed	44	1-hitSmallAudience	Pin Time Travel
77	Magic1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 305 launches	1 in 2214 hits	$533	not computed	305	none	Pin Magic
78	Horror1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 2,001 launches	1 in 2197 hits	$909	not computed	2,001	none	Pin Horror
79	Artificial Intelligence1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 123 launches	1 in 216 hits	$303	not computed	123	Audience	Pin Artificial Intelligence
80	Dynamic Narration1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 41 launches	1 in 212 hits	$666	not computed	41	1-hitSmall	Pin Dynamic Narration
81	Quick-Time Events1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 41 launches	1 in 212 hits	$202	not computed	41	Small	Pin Quick-Time Events
82	Twin Stick Shooter1 in 20 earned $100k+, from 143 launches	1 in 207 hits	$546	not computed	143	none	Pin Twin Stick Shooter
83	4 Player Local1 in 20 earned $100k+, from 122 launches	1 in 206 hits	$606	not computed	122	1-hit	Pin 4 Player Local
84	Thriller1 in 20 earned $100k+, from 316 launches	1 in 2016 hits	$970	not computed	316	none	Pin Thriller
85	Action-Adventure1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 1,851 launches	1 in 1995 hits	$363	not computed	1,851	none	Pin Action-Adventure
86	Political Sim1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 76 launches	1 in 194 hits	$1,010	not computed	76	Audience	Pin Political Sim
87	Action Roguelike1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 1,082 launches	1 in 1957 hits	$534	not computed	1,082	none	Pin Action Roguelike
88	Choose Your Own Adventure1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 620 launches	1 in 1933 hits	$707	not computed	620	none	Pin Choose Your Own Adventure
89	Underground1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 75 launches	1 in 194 hits	$484	not computed	75	Audience	Pin Underground
90	Dragons1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 56 launches	1 in 193 hits	$1,619	not computed	56	1-hit	Pin Dragons
91	Romance1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 315 launches	1 in 1917 hits	$1,732	not computed	315	none	Pin Romance
92	Voxel1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	1 in 194 hits	$606	not computed	74	Audience	Pin Voxel
93	Visual Novel1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 1,162 launches	1 in 1863 hits	$910	not computed	1,162	none	Pin Visual Novel
94	Racing1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 459 launches	1 in 1825 hits	$363	not computed	459	none	Pin Racing
95	Time Manipulation1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 55 launches	1 in 183 hits	$1,578	not computed	55	none	Pin Time Manipulation
96	Idler1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 829 launches	1 in 1846 hits	$707	not computed	829	none	Pin Idler
97	Bullet Time1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 54 launches	1 in 183 hits	$607	not computed	54	none	Pin Bullet Time
98	Shooter1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 1,346 launches	1 in 1875 hits	$324	not computed	1,346	Audience	Pin Shooter
99	Psychedelic1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 160 launches	1 in 189 hits	$1,010	not computed	160	none	Pin Psychedelic
100	God Game1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 88 launches	1 in 185 hits	$647	not computed	88	Audience	Pin God Game

Show 25 moreShowing 100 of 238 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.