Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 1 Oct
Of 238 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months, 130 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.130 of 238 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.130 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
238 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. 170 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | Hex Gridnone of 51 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $800 | not computed | 51 | Audience | Pin Hex Grid |
| 2 | Sokoban1 in 127 earned $100k+, from 127 launches | 1 in 1271 hit | $400 | not computed | 127 | Audience | Pin Sokoban |
| 3 | Word Game1 in 84 earned $100k+, from 253 launches | 1 in 843 hits | $421 | not computed | 253 | Audience | Pin Word Game |
| 4 | Precision Platformer1 in 73 earned $100k+, from 513 launches | 1 in 737 hits | $242 | not computed | 513 | none | Pin Precision Platformer |
| 5 | Score Attack1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 353 launches | 1 in 715 hits | $241 | not computed | 353 | none | Pin Score Attack |
| 6 | Dogs1 in 70 earned $100k+, from 70 launches | 1 in 701 hit | $403 | not computed | 70 | none | Pin Dogs |
| 7 | Text-Based1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 411 launches | 1 in 696 hits | $484 | not computed | 411 | Audience | Pin Text-Based |
| 8 | Spelling1 in 62 earned $100k+, from 62 launches | 1 in 621 hit | $363 | not computed | 62 | none | Pin Spelling |
| 9 | Arena Shooter1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 284 launches | 1 in 575 hits | $242 | not computed | 284 | Audience | Pin Arena Shooter |
| 10 | Hidden Object1 in 55 earned $100k+, from 937 launches | 1 in 5517 hits | $424 | not computed | 937 | none | Pin Hidden Object |
| 11 | Aliens1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 153 launches | 1 in 513 hits | $162 | not computed | 153 | none | Pin Aliens |
| 12 | On-Rails Shooter1 in 50 earned $100k+, from 50 launches | 1 in 501 hit | $485 | not computed | 50 | none | Pin On-Rails Shooter |
| 13 | 3D Fighter1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 195 launches | 1 in 494 hits | $202 | not computed | 195 | none | Pin 3D Fighter |
| 14 | Grid-Based Movement1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 145 launches | 1 in 483 hits | $405 | not computed | 145 | none | Pin Grid-Based Movement |
| 15 | 2D Platformer1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 1,430 launches | 1 in 4333 hits | $201 | not computed | 1,430 | none | Pin 2D Platformer |
| 16 | Puzzle Platformer1 in 42 earned $100k+, from 637 launches | 1 in 4215 hits | $242 | not computed | 637 | Audience | Pin Puzzle Platformer |
| 17 | Shoot 'Em Up1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 485 launches | 1 in 4012 hits | $202 | not computed | 485 | none | Pin Shoot 'Em Up |
| 18 | Logic1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 524 launches | 1 in 4013 hits | $242 | not computed | 524 | none | Pin Logic |
| 19 | Arcade1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 2,226 launches | 1 in 3957 hits | $242 | not computed | 2,226 | none | Pin Arcade |
| 20 | 2D Fighter1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 271 launches | 1 in 397 hits | $61 | not computed | 271 | Audience | Pin 2D Fighter |
| 21 | Trivia1 in 38 earned $100k+, from 75 launches | 1 in 382 hits | $161 | not computed | 75 | none | Pin Trivia |
| 22 | Dystopian 1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 111 launches | 1 in 373 hits | $485 | not computed | 111 | none | Pin Dystopian |
| 23 | Tabletop1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 326 launches | 1 in 369 hits | $242 | not computed | 326 | none | Pin Tabletop |
| 24 | Space Sim1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 141 launches | 1 in 354 hits | $323 | not computed | 141 | Audience | Pin Space Sim |
| 25 | Mystery Dungeon1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 139 launches | 1 in 354 hits | $303 | not computed | 139 | Audience | Pin Mystery Dungeon |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.