Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Incremental + Resource Managementabout 8.3 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Incremental + Resource Management14 in 100114 launches 2Idler + Resource Management13 in 100119 launches 3Incremental + Management11 in 100157 launches 4Incremental + Pixel Graphics1 in13214 launches 5Idler + Pixel Graphics1 in12262 launches

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens West-facing view

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Games mostly reviewed outside China: drops games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 West-facing view 100+ launches Reset

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Loads the 30+ launches view.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Loads the 30+ launches view.

Hide one-hit markets28 out Hide small samples0 out

193 of 266 genres have 100+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

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Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Match 31 in 131 earned $100k+, from 261 launches	1 in 1312 hits	$121	not computed	261	1-hit	Pin Match 3
2	Spelling1 in 103 earned $100k+, from 103 launches	1 in 1031 hit	$303	not computed	103	none	Pin Spelling
3	Solitaire1 in 97 earned $100k+, from 193 launches	1 in 972 hits	$364	not computed	193	1-hitAudience	Pin Solitaire
4	Runner1 in 79 earned $100k+, from 553 launches	1 in 797 hits	$121	not computed	553	1-hit	Pin Runner
5	Sokoban1 in 78 earned $100k+, from 234 launches	1 in 783 hits	$485	not computed	234	Audience	Pin Sokoban
6	Hidden Object1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 1,721 launches	1 in 6925 hits	$545	not computed	1,721	none	Pin Hidden Object
7	Precision Platformer1 in 67 earned $100k+, from 935 launches	1 in 6714 hits	$303	not computed	935	none	Pin Precision Platformer
8	3D Fighter1 in 66 earned $100k+, from 330 launches	1 in 665 hits	$202	not computed	330	none	Pin 3D Fighter
9	Trivia1 in 61 earned $100k+, from 121 launches	1 in 612 hits	$200	not computed	121	none	Pin Trivia
10	Score Attack1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 622 launches	1 in 5711 hits	$202	not computed	622	none	Pin Score Attack
11	Shoot 'Em Up1 in 53 earned $100k+, from 908 launches	1 in 5317 hits	$282	not computed	908	none	Pin Shoot 'Em Up
12	Traditional Roguelike1 in 50 earned $100k+, from 100 launches	1 in 502 hits	$324	not computed	100	1-hitAudience	Pin Traditional Roguelike
13	Arena Shooter1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 540 launches	1 in 4911 hits	$282	not computed	540	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
14	Aliens1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 286 launches	1 in 486 hits	$243	not computed	286	none	Pin Aliens
15	Logic1 in 44 earned $100k+, from 969 launches	1 in 4422 hits	$322	not computed	969	none	Pin Logic
16	Arcade1 in 41 earned $100k+, from 4,022 launches	1 in 4197 hits	$243	not computed	4,022	none	Pin Arcade
17	Puzzle Platformer1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 1,136 launches	1 in 3929 hits	$283	not computed	1,136	Audience	Pin Puzzle Platformer
18	Text-Based1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 662 launches	1 in 3917 hits	$728	not computed	662	Audience	Pin Text-Based
19	Combat Racing1 in 38 earned $100k+, from 191 launches	1 in 385 hits	$443	not computed	191	none	Pin Combat Racing
20	Perma Death1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 439 launches	1 in 3712 hits	$646	not computed	439	none	Pin Perma Death
21	Mystery Dungeon1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 256 launches	1 in 377 hits	$361	not computed	256	Audience	Pin Mystery Dungeon
22	2D Platformer1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 2,483 launches	1 in 3768 hits	$221	not computed	2,483	none	Pin 2D Platformer
23	2D Fighter1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 436 launches	1 in 3612 hits	$161	not computed	436	Audience	Pin 2D Fighter
24	Top-Down Shooter1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 868 launches	1 in 3624 hits	$281	not computed	868	Audience	Pin Top-Down Shooter
25	1980s1 in 32 earned $100k+, from 510 launches	1 in 3216 hits	$242	not computed	510	none	Pin 1980s

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 193 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.