Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

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All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens West-facing view

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Games mostly reviewed outside China: drops games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 West-facing view 30+ launches Reset

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 264 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,529 launches. 264 match.

Hide one-hit markets50 out Hide small samples24 out

264 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

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Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Chessnone of 60 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$404	not computed	60	none	Pin Chess
2	6DOFnone of 57 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$364	not computed	57	none	Pin 6DOF
3	Mini Golfnone of 39 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$1,209	not computed	39	Small	Pin Mini Golf
4	Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 34 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$485	not computed	34	Small	Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
5	Billiardsnone of 31 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$281	not computed	31	Small	Pin Billiards
6	Match 31 in 131 earned $100k+, from 261 launches	1 in 1312 hits	$121	not computed	261	1-hit	Pin Match 3
7	Spelling1 in 103 earned $100k+, from 103 launches	1 in 1031 hit	$303	not computed	103	none	Pin Spelling
8	Solitaire1 in 97 earned $100k+, from 193 launches	1 in 972 hits	$364	not computed	193	1-hitAudience	Pin Solitaire
9	Runner1 in 79 earned $100k+, from 553 launches	1 in 797 hits	$121	not computed	553	1-hit	Pin Runner
10	Sokoban1 in 78 earned $100k+, from 234 launches	1 in 783 hits	$485	not computed	234	Audience	Pin Sokoban
11	Hidden Object1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 1,721 launches	1 in 6925 hits	$545	not computed	1,721	none	Pin Hidden Object
12	Precision Platformer1 in 67 earned $100k+, from 935 launches	1 in 6714 hits	$303	not computed	935	none	Pin Precision Platformer
13	3D Fighter1 in 66 earned $100k+, from 330 launches	1 in 665 hits	$202	not computed	330	none	Pin 3D Fighter
14	Trivia1 in 61 earned $100k+, from 121 launches	1 in 612 hits	$200	not computed	121	none	Pin Trivia
15	Score Attack1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 622 launches	1 in 5711 hits	$202	not computed	622	none	Pin Score Attack
16	Shoot 'Em Up1 in 53 earned $100k+, from 908 launches	1 in 5317 hits	$282	not computed	908	none	Pin Shoot 'Em Up
17	Boxing1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 51 launches	1 in 511 hit	$890	not computed	51	Audience	Pin Boxing
18	Traditional Roguelike1 in 50 earned $100k+, from 100 launches	1 in 502 hits	$324	not computed	100	1-hitAudience	Pin Traditional Roguelike
19	Arena Shooter1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 540 launches	1 in 4911 hits	$282	not computed	540	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
20	Basketball1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 48 launches	1 in 481 hit	$1,819	not computed	48	SmallAudience	Pin Basketball
21	Aliens1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 286 launches	1 in 486 hits	$243	not computed	286	none	Pin Aliens
22	Logic1 in 44 earned $100k+, from 969 launches	1 in 4422 hits	$322	not computed	969	none	Pin Logic
23	Arcade1 in 41 earned $100k+, from 4,022 launches	1 in 4197 hits	$243	not computed	4,022	none	Pin Arcade
24	Submarine1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 40 launches	1 in 401 hit	$728	not computed	40	Small	Pin Submarine
25	On-Rails Shooter1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 79 launches	1 in 402 hits	$443	not computed	79	none	Pin On-Rails Shooter
26	Puzzle Platformer1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 1,136 launches	1 in 3929 hits	$283	not computed	1,136	Audience	Pin Puzzle Platformer
27	Text-Based1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 662 launches	1 in 3917 hits	$728	not computed	662	Audience	Pin Text-Based
28	Combat Racing1 in 38 earned $100k+, from 191 launches	1 in 385 hits	$443	not computed	191	none	Pin Combat Racing
29	Time Attack1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 37 launches	1 in 371 hit	$443	not computed	37	1-hitSmall	Pin Time Attack
30	Perma Death1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 439 launches	1 in 3712 hits	$646	not computed	439	none	Pin Perma Death
31	Mystery Dungeon1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 256 launches	1 in 377 hits	$361	not computed	256	Audience	Pin Mystery Dungeon
32	2D Platformer1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 2,483 launches	1 in 3768 hits	$221	not computed	2,483	none	Pin 2D Platformer
33	2D Fighter1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 436 launches	1 in 3612 hits	$161	not computed	436	Audience	Pin 2D Fighter
34	Top-Down Shooter1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 868 launches	1 in 3624 hits	$281	not computed	868	Audience	Pin Top-Down Shooter
35	Faith1 in 34 earned $100k+, from 67 launches	1 in 342 hits	$484	not computed	67	none	Pin Faith
36	Snow1 in 33 earned $100k+, from 65 launches	1 in 332 hits	$607	not computed	65	none	Pin Snow
37	1980s1 in 32 earned $100k+, from 510 launches	1 in 3216 hits	$242	not computed	510	none	Pin 1980s
38	Grid-Based Movement1 in 32 earned $100k+, from 253 launches	1 in 328 hits	$405	not computed	253	none	Pin Grid-Based Movement
39	Word Game1 in 31 earned $100k+, from 283 launches	1 in 319 hits	$425	not computed	283	Audience	Pin Word Game
40	Tabletop1 in 31 earned $100k+, from 532 launches	1 in 3117 hits	$303	not computed	532	none	Pin Tabletop
41	Bullet Hell1 in 31 earned $100k+, from 1,438 launches	1 in 3147 hits	$505	not computed	1,438	1-hit	Pin Bullet Hell
42	Trading Card Game1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 119 launches	1 in 304 hits	$405	not computed	119	1-hit	Pin Trading Card Game
43	Experimental1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 89 launches	1 in 303 hits	$1,577	not computed	89	1-hit	Pin Experimental
44	Incremental1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 1,304 launches	1 in 2945 hits	$403	not computed	1,304	none	Pin Incremental
45	Puzzle1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 5,529 launches	1 in 29192 hits	$461	not computed	5,529	none	Pin Puzzle
46	3D Platformer1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 1,632 launches	1 in 2957 hits	$242	not computed	1,632	none	Pin 3D Platformer
47	Walking Simulator1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 1,547 launches	1 in 2855 hits	$1,010	not computed	1,547	none	Pin Walking Simulator
48	Dogs1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 138 launches	1 in 285 hits	$405	not computed	138	none	Pin Dogs
49	Platformer1 in 28 earned $100k+, from 2,538 launches	1 in 2892 hits	$323	not computed	2,538	1-hit	Pin Platformer
50	Quick-Time Events1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 82 launches	1 in 273 hits	$202	not computed	82	none	Pin Quick-Time Events
51	Parkour1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 405 launches	1 in 2715 hits	$404	not computed	405	Audience	Pin Parkour
52	Supernatural1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 405 launches	1 in 2715 hits	$1,293	not computed	405	none	Pin Supernatural
53	Battle Royale1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 135 launches	1 in 275 hits	$202	not computed	135	1-hit	Pin Battle Royale
54	Golf1 in 27 earned $100k+, from 54 launches	1 in 272 hits	$971	not computed	54	1-hitAudience	Pin Golf
55	Space Sim1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 236 launches	1 in 269 hits	$404	not computed	236	Audience	Pin Space Sim
56	Hero Shooter1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 131 launches	1 in 265 hits	$202	not computed	131	none	Pin Hero Shooter
57	Party Game1 in 26 earned $100k+, from 258 launches	1 in 2610 hits	$647	not computed	258	none	Pin Party Game
58	Board Game1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 659 launches	1 in 2526 hits	$243	not computed	659	none	Pin Board Game
59	Dialogue Heavy1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 303 launches	1 in 2512 hits	$1,007	not computed	303	none	Pin Dialogue Heavy
60	Underground1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 125 launches	1 in 255 hits	$484	not computed	125	Audience	Pin Underground
61	4 Player Local1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 224 launches	1 in 259 hits	$809	not computed	224	1-hit	Pin 4 Player Local
62	Dynamic Narration1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	1 in 253 hits	$485	not computed	74	1-hit	Pin Dynamic Narration
63	Steampunk1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	1 in 253 hits	$909	not computed	74	none	Pin Steampunk
64	Cats1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 561 launches	1 in 2423 hits	$882	not computed	561	1-hit	Pin Cats
65	God Game1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 170 launches	1 in 247 hits	$607	not computed	170	Audience	Pin God Game
66	Point & Click1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 1,916 launches	1 in 2479 hits	$566	not computed	1,916	none	Pin Point & Click
67	Real Time Tactics1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 535 launches	1 in 2323 hits	$363	not computed	535	Audience	Pin Real Time Tactics
68	Hex Grid1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 92 launches	1 in 234 hits	$808	not computed	92	Audience	Pin Hex Grid
69	Jump Scare1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 46 launches	1 in 232 hits	$1,332	not computed	46	Small	Pin Jump Scare
70	Demons1 in 23 earned $100k+, from 363 launches	1 in 2316 hits	$566	not computed	363	none	Pin Demons
71	Collectathon1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 846 launches	1 in 2238 hits	$707	not computed	846	1-hit	Pin Collectathon
72	Magic1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 555 launches	1 in 2225 hits	$607	not computed	555	none	Pin Magic
73	Thriller1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 544 launches	1 in 2225 hits	$1,293	not computed	544	none	Pin Thriller
74	Escape Room1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 128 launches	1 in 216 hits	$1,048	not computed	128	none	Pin Escape Room
75	Comic Book1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 341 launches	1 in 2116 hits	$566	not computed	341	none	Pin Comic Book

Show 25 moreShowing 75 of 264 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.