Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 263 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,738 launches. 263 match.

Hide one-hit markets+26 if off Hide small samples3 out Holds in every lens+60 if off

263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. 153 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

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Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Open World Survival Craft30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 107 launches	30 in 10032 hits	$20,964	not computed	107	none	Pin Open World Survival Craft
2	FMV22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 171 launches	22 in 10037 hits	$10,043	not computed	171	Audience	Pin FMV
3	Base Building20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 627 launches	20 in 100124 hits	$3,683	not computed	627	none	Pin Base Building
4	Online Co-Op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 794 launches	19 in 100152 hits	$4,451	not computed	794	none	Pin Online Co-Op
5	Co-op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 787 launches	19 in 100147 hits	$3,643	not computed	787	none	Pin Co-op
6	Building17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 894 launches	17 in 100156 hits	$2,732	not computed	894	none	Pin Building
7	Colony Sim17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 250 launches	17 in 10043 hits	$2,689	not computed	250	none	Pin Colony Sim
8	Open World16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 925 launches	16 in 100150 hits	$2,062	not computed	925	none	Pin Open World
9	Music16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 150 launches	16 in 10024 hits	$1,699	not computed	150	none	Pin Music
10	Mechs16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 114 launches	16 in 10018 hits	$4,858	not computed	114	none	Pin Mechs
11	Management16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,288 launches	16 in 100201 hits	$3,638	not computed	1,288	none	Pin Management
12	Crafting15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 735 launches	15 in 100113 hits	$2,428	not computed	735	none	Pin Crafting
13	Sandbox15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,393 launches	15 in 100209 hits	$1,841	not computed	1,393	none	Pin Sandbox
14	City Builder15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 540 launches	15 in 10080 hits	$1,982	not computed	540	Audience	Pin City Builder
15	Economy14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 641 launches	14 in 10092 hits	$3,459	not computed	641	none	Pin Economy
16	Shop Keeper14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 183 launches	14 in 10026 hits	$3,683	not computed	183	none	Pin Shop Keeper
17	Job Simulator13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 126 launches	13 in 10017 hits	$8,351	not computed	126	none	Pin Job Simulator
18	Cozy13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 650 launches	13 in 10087 hits	$2,119	not computed	650	none	Pin Cozy
19	Fishing13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 180 launches	13 in 10024 hits	$1,617	not computed	180	Audience	Pin Fishing
20	Life Sim13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,054 launches	13 in 100136 hits	$2,122	not computed	1,054	none	Pin Life Sim
21	Resource Management13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 762 launches	13 in 10096 hits	$2,136	not computed	762	none	Pin Resource Management
22	Capitalism12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 317 launches	12 in 10038 hits	$2,630	not computed	317	none	Pin Capitalism
23	Cinematic12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 531 launches	12 in 10063 hits	$1,374	not computed	531	Audience	Pin Cinematic
24	Driving12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 457 launches	12 in 10054 hits	$1,011	not computed	457	none	Pin Driving
25	Lovecraftian12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 178 launches	12 in 10021 hits	$3,643	not computed	178	Audience	Pin Lovecraftian
26	Souls-like12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 462 launches	12 in 10054 hits	$1,157	not computed	462	none	Pin Souls-like
27	Mining12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 163 launches	12 in 10019 hits	$1,415	not computed	163	none	Pin Mining
28	Military11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 307 launches	11 in 10035 hits	$971	not computed	307	none	Pin Military
29	Inventory Management11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 257 launches	11 in 10029 hits	$1,840	not computed	257	none	Pin Inventory Management
30	War11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 315 launches	11 in 10035 hits	$1,456	not computed	315	none	Pin War
31	Tactical11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 492 launches	11 in 10054 hits	$970	not computed	492	none	Pin Tactical
32	Vampires11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 82 launches	11 in 1009 hits	$1,132	not computed	82	none	Pin Vampires
33	Massively Multiplayer11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches	11 in 1008 hits	$323	not computed	73	none	Pin Massively Multiplayer
34	Character Customization11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 905 launches	11 in 10099 hits	$1,132	not computed	905	none	Pin Character Customization
35	Martial Arts11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 149 launches	11 in 10016 hits	$1,214	not computed	149	Audience	Pin Martial Arts
36	Investigation11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 497 launches	11 in 10053 hits	$1,214	not computed	497	none	Pin Investigation
37	Gun Customization10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 115 launches	10 in 10012 hits	$1,132	not computed	115	none	Pin Gun Customization
38	Dice10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 59 launches	10 in 1006 hits	$1,780	not computed	59	none	Pin Dice
39	Detective10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 581 launches	10 in 10059 hits	$1,274	not computed	581	none	Pin Detective
40	Post-apocalyptic10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 527 launches	10 in 10053 hits	$1,131	not computed	527	none	Pin Post-apocalyptic
41	Noir1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 192 launches	1 in 1019 hits	$1,334	not computed	192	none	Pin Noir
42	Immersive Sim1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 1,558 launches	1 in 10154 hits	$1,456	not computed	1,558	none	Pin Immersive Sim
43	Wholesome1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 338 launches	1 in 1033 hits	$1,652	not computed	338	none	Pin Wholesome
44	Survival1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 1,106 launches	1 in 10106 hits	$1,209	not computed	1,106	none	Pin Survival
45	Gambling1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 149 launches	1 in 1114 hits	$887	not computed	149	none	Pin Gambling
46	Dark Humor1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 439 launches	1 in 1141 hits	$1,011	not computed	439	none	Pin Dark Humor
47	RTS1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 524 launches	1 in 1148 hits	$685	not computed	524	Audience	Pin RTS
48	Hack and Slash1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 896 launches	1 in 1182 hits	$1,010	not computed	896	none	Pin Hack and Slash
49	Dating Sim1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 669 launches	1 in 1161 hits	$2,265	not computed	669	Audience	Pin Dating Sim
50	Automobile Sim1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 329 launches	1 in 1129 hits	$808	not computed	329	Audience	Pin Automobile Sim

Show 25 moreShowing 50 of 153 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.