Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Pick up to three tags and a price. Get a plain answer: your odds of a $100k first year, what launches like yours earned, what you are up against, and what to watch for.
Too few Basketball games launched at $10 to $20 to read the odds: 8 launches in two years.
Too few
Only 8 launches at $10 to $20, so no odds are shown.
Too few
Too few launches at this price for a typical figure.
8 launches
At $10 to $20, in two years (about 4 a year). Busier than 6 in 100 single tags; the notch is the middle one.
59 games
Coming-soon games with this tag. More than 9 in 100 single tags. Highest on wishlists: PASS Fortress (#3,610), FREE DUNK (#4,550).
Without Hoop Land, the chance moves from 1 in 50 to 0 in 100.
In the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China), typical earnings rise 19% (to $1,819).
Only 8 launches at $10 to $20: too few for odds.
No odds to test.
Launches from the last 18 months: 1 in 33, against 1 in 50 across both years.
Lens checkOne-hit market +2. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 5 to 8 in 100.
Indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, measured 1 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 2 Oct 2026.
Once a month we re-measure your odds at $10 to $20 and tell you in plain words what changed.
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Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime grossFree until launch
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.