Niche

2D + Choices Matter

Games tagged both 2D and Choices Matter: 338 indie paid launches, 14 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing 2D + Choices Matter priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with 2D and trails Choices Matter; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

2D + Choices Matter trails both its tags: 13.3 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 16.6 in 100 for 2D and 23.3 in 100 for Choices Matter.

That is about 0.6 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

2NDRunner-up

Tag onemood tag2D

16.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds16.6 in 100

Typical earnings$8,118

Launches953 / 158 hits

Pair trails by3.2 in 100

3RDThird

This pair2D + Choices Matter

13.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds13.3 in 100

$1k+91 in 100

$10k+56 in 100

Launches45 / 6 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

1STWinner

Tag twomood tagChoices Matter

23.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds23.3 in 100

Typical earnings$18,577

Launches249 / 58 hits

Pair trails by10.0 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $202D is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices338 in pair Under $5190 in pair $5 to $1089 in pair $10 to $2045 in pair $20 to $4014 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 45 games tagged both 2D and Choices Matter priced $10 to $20. 13.3 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 16.7 in 100 for 2D-only games and 25.5 in 100 for Choices Matter-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.

Both: 45 games priced $10 to $20; 13.3 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 91 in 100 · $10k+ 56 in 100 · $100k+ 13 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 45 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Drova - Forsaken Kinleads this pair35.4%

PairDrova - Forsaken Kin35.4%

2DHollow Knight: Silksong39.4%

Choices MatterLegend of Mortal11.7%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads 2D + Choices Matter

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Drova - Forsaken Kin earned 35.4% of the estimated first-year money of the 338 2D + Choices Matter launches.
2D is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 39.4% of its money.
Choices Matter is led by Legend of Mortal, with 11.7% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

2D + Choices Matter is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout.

2D + Choices Matter through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view330 of 338 launches	Without the breakout337 of 338 launches	Last 18 months91 of 338 launches
Launches counted	33814 hits	33012 hits	33713 hits	911 hits
Earned $100k+	4.1 in 1001 in 24	3.6 in 1001 in 28	3.9 in 1001 in 26	1 of 91too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$399top tenth $27,059+	$399	$390	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	-12.2%0.5 fewer in 100	-6.9%0.3 fewer in 100	-73.5%3.0 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-2.3%$9 less	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 338 launches.

Launches counted: 33814 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.1 in 1001 in 24
Typical first-year earnings: $399top tenth $27,059+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 8 of 338 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 33012 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $399
Chance against standard: -12.2%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Drova - Forsaken Kin (35.4% of the money): 337 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 33713 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.9 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings: $390
Chance against standard: -6.9%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.3%$9 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 91 of 338.

Launches counted: 911 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 91too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -73.5%3.0 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 338 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 8 of 338 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Drova - Forsaken Kin (35.4% of the money): 337 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 91 of 338.

2D holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

2D through every lens, all prices
2D	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view7,851 of 8,361 launches	Without the breakout8,360 of 8,361 launches	Last 18 months2,328 of 8,361 launches
Launches counted	8,361283 hits	7,851261 hits	8,360282 hits	2,32884 hits
Earned $100k+	3.4 in 1001 in 30	3.3 in 1001 in 30	3.4 in 1001 in 30	3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings	$290top tenth $13,574+	$295	$290	$273
Chance against standard	the base	-1.8%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.3%no change	+6.6%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.7%$5 more	0.0%no change	-5.9%$17 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,361 launches.

Launches counted: 8,361283 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.4 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $290top tenth $13,574+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 510 of 8,361 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 7,851261 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $295
Chance against standard: -1.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.7%$5 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.4% of the money): 8,360 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 8,360282 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.4 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $290
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,328 of 8,361.

Launches counted: 2,32884 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $273
Chance against standard: +6.6%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: -5.9%$17 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,361 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 510 of 8,361 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.4% of the money): 8,360 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,328 of 8,361.

Choices Matter is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Choices Matter through every lens, all prices
Choices Matter	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,114 of 1,168 launches	Without the breakout1,167 of 1,168 launches	Last 18 months344 of 1,168 launches
Launches counted	1,168108 hits	1,11496 hits	1,167107 hits	34426 hits
Earned $100k+	9.2 in 1001 in 11	8.6 in 1001 in 12	9.2 in 1001 in 11	7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,201top tenth $88,388+	$1,168	$1,178	$1,089
Chance against standard	the base	-6.8%0.6 fewer in 100	-0.8%0.1 fewer in 100	-18.3%1.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-2.7%$33 less	-1.9%$23 less	-9.3%$112 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 1,168 launches.

Launches counted: 1,168108 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.2 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,201top tenth $88,388+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 54 of 1,168 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,11496 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,168
Chance against standard: -6.8%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.7%$33 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (11.7% of the money): 1,167 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,167107 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.2 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,178
Chance against standard: -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.9%$23 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 344 of 1,168.

Launches counted: 34426 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,089
Chance against standard: -18.3%1.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -9.3%$112 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 1,168 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 54 of 1,168 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (11.7% of the money): 1,167 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 344 of 1,168.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when 2D + Choices Matter moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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