Niche

2D + Historical

Games tagged both 2D and Historical: 143 indie paid launches, 6 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing 2D + Historical priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with 2D and trails Historical; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with 2D and is too small to compare with Historical.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

2D + Historical is too small to compare with 2D and is too small to compare with Historical: 1 of its 22 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 16.6 in 100 for 2D and 26.0 in 100 for Historical.

Small sample: 22 launches, 1 hits.

TIETied

Tag onemood tag2D

16.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds16.6 in 100

Typical earnings$8,118

Launches953 / 158 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pair2D + Historical

1 of 22launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 22 launches

$1k+21 of 22 launches

$10k+12 of 22 launches

Launches22 / 1 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagHistorical

26.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds26.0 in 100

Typical earnings$23,748

Launches104 / 27 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $202D is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices143 in pair Under $563 in pair $5 to $1040 in pair $10 to $2022 in pair $20 to $4018 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 22 games tagged both 2D and Historical priced $10 to $20. 1 of 22 of them earned $100k+, against 16.9 in 100 for 2D-only games and 31.7 in 100 for Historical-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with 2D alone and is too small to compare with Historical alone.

Both: 22 games priced $10 to $20; 1 of 22 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 21 of 22 launches · $10k+ 12 of 22 launches · $100k+ 1 of 22 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 22 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Three Kingdoms Mushoudenleads this pair30.2%

PairThree Kingdoms Mushouden30.2%

2DHollow Knight: Silksong39.4%

HistoricalManor Lords59.8%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads 2D + Historical

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Three Kingdoms Mushouden earned 30.2% of the estimated first-year money of the 143 2D + Historical launches.
2D is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 39.4% of its money.
Historical is led by Manor Lords, with 59.8% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

2D + Historical is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout.

2D + Historical through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view125 of 143 launches	Without the breakout142 of 143 launches	Last 18 months34 of 143 launches
Launches counted	1436 hits	1256 hits	1425 hits	344 hits
Earned $100k+	4.2 in 1001 in 24	4.8 in 1001 in 21	3.5 in 1001 in 28	4 of 34too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$1,300top tenth $41,282+	$1,636	$1,300	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+14.4%0.6 more in 100	-16.1%0.7 fewer in 100	+180.4%7.6 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	+25.8%$336 more	0.0%no change	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 143 launches.

Launches counted: 1436 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.2 in 1001 in 24
Typical first-year earnings: $1,300top tenth $41,282+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 18 of 143 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1256 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.8 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $1,636
Chance against standard: +14.4%0.6 more in 100
Typical against standard: +25.8%$336 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (30.2% of the money): 142 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1425 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $1,300
Chance against standard: -16.1%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 34 of 143.

Launches counted: 344 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 34too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +180.4%7.6 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 143 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 18 of 143 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (30.2% of the money): 142 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 34 of 143.

2D holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

2D through every lens, all prices
2D	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view7,851 of 8,361 launches	Without the breakout8,360 of 8,361 launches	Last 18 months2,328 of 8,361 launches
Launches counted	8,361283 hits	7,851261 hits	8,360282 hits	2,32884 hits
Earned $100k+	3.4 in 1001 in 30	3.3 in 1001 in 30	3.4 in 1001 in 30	3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings	$290top tenth $13,574+	$295	$290	$273
Chance against standard	the base	-1.8%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.3%no change	+6.6%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.7%$5 more	0.0%no change	-5.9%$17 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,361 launches.

Launches counted: 8,361283 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.4 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $290top tenth $13,574+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 510 of 8,361 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 7,851261 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $295
Chance against standard: -1.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.7%$5 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.4% of the money): 8,360 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 8,360282 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.4 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $290
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,328 of 8,361.

Launches counted: 2,32884 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $273
Chance against standard: +6.6%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: -5.9%$17 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,361 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 510 of 8,361 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.4% of the money): 8,360 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,328 of 8,361.

Historical is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Historical through every lens, all prices
Historical	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view379 of 429 launches	Without the breakout428 of 429 launches	Last 18 months103 of 429 launches
Launches counted	42955 hits	37949 hits	42854 hits	10311 hits
Earned $100k+	12.8 in 100	12.9 in 100	12.6 in 100	10.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,231top tenth $198,854+	$2,165	$2,231	$1,743
Chance against standard	the base	+0.8%0.1 more in 100	-1.6%0.2 fewer in 100	-16.7%2.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-3.0%$66 less	0.0%no change	-21.9%$488 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 429 launches.

Launches counted: 42955 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,231top tenth $198,854+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 50 of 429 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 37949 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,165
Chance against standard: +0.8%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: -3.0%$66 less

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (59.8% of the money): 428 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 42854 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,231
Chance against standard: -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 103 of 429.

Launches counted: 10311 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,743
Chance against standard: -16.7%2.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -21.9%$488 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 429 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 50 of 429 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (59.8% of the money): 428 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 103 of 429.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when 2D + Historical moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.