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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 30 Sep 2026

Niches / 2D + Match 3

Niche

2D + Match 3

Games tagged both 2D and Match 3: 174 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing 2D + Match 3 priced $10 to $20, west-facing view. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails 2D and is level with Match 3; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

2D + Match 3 trails both its tags: 1 of its 25 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 14.4 in 100 for 2D and 8.6 in 100 for Match 3.

Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures. Small sample: 25 launches, 1 hits.

1STWinner
Tag onemood tag2D
14.4in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds14.4 in 100
Typical earnings$6,072
Launches1,032 / 149 hits
Pair trails by10.4 in 100
3RDThird
This pair2D + Match 3
1 of 25launches earned
$100k+ small
Odds1 of 25 launches
Typical earnings$526
Launches25 / 1 hits
Expected18.6 in 100
2NDRunner-up
Tag twoMatch 3
8.6in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds1 in 12
Typical earnings$607
Launches35 / 3 hits
Pair trails by4.6 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $202D is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices174 in pairUnder $589 in pair$5 to $1058 in pair$10 to $2025 in pair$20 to $402: too few
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 25 games tagged both 2D and Match 3 priced $10 to $20. 4.0 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 14.7 for 2D-only games and 20.0 for Match 3-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.

Both: 25 games priced $10 to $20; 4.0 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 25), typical first-year earnings $526.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 25 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The west-facing view lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Puzzle Quest: Immortal Editionleads this pair44.7%
PairPuzzle Quest: Immortal Edition44.7%
2DHollow Knight: Silksong32.4%
Match 3POPUCOM51.6%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads 2D + Match 3

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition earned 44.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 174 2D + Match 3 launches.
  • 2D is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 32.4% of its money.
  • Match 3 is led by POPUCOM, with 51.6% of its money. That is close to a one-hit market.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

2D + Match 3 is one-hit market +1: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.

2D + Match 3 through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view158 of 174 launchesWithout the breakout173 of 174 launchesLast 18 months90 of 174 launches
Launches counted1741 hits1581 hits1730 hits901 hits
Earned $100k+0.6 in 1001 in 1670.6 in 1001 in 1670.0 in 1001.1 in 1001 in 91
Typical first-year earnings$182top tenth $2,428+$202$182$100
Chance against standardthe yardstick0.0%no change-100.0%0.6 fewer in 100+83.3%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick+11.0%$20 more0.0%no change-45.1%$82 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsMoves the answerMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Match 3, 6 to 30 months old: 174 launches.

Launches counted
1741 hits
Earned $100k+
0.6 in 1001 in 167
Typical first-year earnings
$182top tenth $2,428+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 174 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1581 hits
Earned $100k+
0.6 in 1001 in 167
Typical first-year earnings
$202
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
+11.0%$20 more
Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition (44.7% of the money): 173 launches left.

Launches counted
1730 hits
Earned $100k+
0.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$182
Chance against standard
-100.0%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 90 of 174.

Launches counted
901 hits
Earned $100k+
1.1 in 1001 in 91
Typical first-year earnings
$100
Chance against standard
+83.3%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard
-45.1%$82 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Match 3, 6 to 30 months old: 174 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 174 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition (44.7% of the money): 173 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 90 of 174.

2D holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

2D through every lens, all prices
2DBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view8,723 of 9,279 launchesWithout the breakout9,278 of 9,279 launchesLast 18 months5,071 of 9,279 launches
Launches counted9,279280 hits8,723261 hits9,278279 hits5,071141 hits
Earned $100k+3.0 in 1001 in 333.0 in 1001 in 333.0 in 1001 in 332.8 in 1001 in 36
Typical first-year earnings$303top tenth $12,749+$303$303$243
Chance against standardthe yardstick0.0%no change0.0%no change-6.7%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick0.0%no change0.0%no change-19.8%$60 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 6 to 30 months old: 9,279 launches.

Launches counted
9,279280 hits
Earned $100k+
3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$303top tenth $12,749+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 556 of 9,279 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
8,723261 hits
Earned $100k+
3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$303
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (32.4% of the money): 9,278 launches left.

Launches counted
9,278279 hits
Earned $100k+
3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$303
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 5,071 of 9,279.

Launches counted
5,071141 hits
Earned $100k+
2.8 in 1001 in 36
Typical first-year earnings
$243
Chance against standard
-6.7%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-19.8%$60 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 6 to 30 months old: 9,279 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 556 of 9,279 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (32.4% of the money): 9,278 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 5,071 of 9,279.

Match 3 is one-hit market +2: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 2 more lenses too. It holds in 0 of 3.

Match 3 through every lens, all prices
Match 3BaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view261 of 284 launchesWithout the breakout283 of 284 launchesLast 18 months146 of 284 launches
Launches counted2843 hits2612 hits2832 hits1462 hits
Earned $100k+1.1 in 1001 in 910.8 in 1001 in 1250.7 in 1001 in 1431.4 in 1001 in 71
Typical first-year earnings$121top tenth $2,589+$121$121$100
Chance against standardthe yardstick-27.3%0.3 fewer in 100-36.4%0.4 fewer in 100+27.3%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick0.0%no change0.0%no change-17.4%$21 less
Does it hold?The base viewMoves the answerMoves the answerMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Match 3, 6 to 30 months old: 284 launches.

Launches counted
2843 hits
Earned $100k+
1.1 in 1001 in 91
Typical first-year earnings
$121top tenth $2,589+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 23 of 284 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
2612 hits
Earned $100k+
0.8 in 1001 in 125
Typical first-year earnings
$121
Chance against standard
-27.3%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, POPUCOM (51.6% of the money): 283 launches left.

Launches counted
2832 hits
Earned $100k+
0.7 in 1001 in 143
Typical first-year earnings
$121
Chance against standard
-36.4%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 146 of 284.

Launches counted
1462 hits
Earned $100k+
1.4 in 1001 in 71
Typical first-year earnings
$100
Chance against standard
+27.3%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
-17.4%$21 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Match 3, 6 to 30 months old: 284 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 23 of 284 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, POPUCOM (51.6% of the money): 283 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 146 of 284.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when 2D + Match 3 moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.