Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / 3D Fighter + RPG
3D Fighter + RPG
Games tagged both 3D Fighter and RPG: 50 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing 3D Fighter + RPG priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is level with 3D Fighter and trails RPG; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
13 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.
Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.
46 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.
13 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 13 games tagged both 3D Fighter and RPG priced $10 to $20. 7.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 9.1 for 3D Fighter-only games and 18.7 for RPG-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 13 games priced $10 to $20; 7.7 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 13), typical first-year earnings $385.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 13 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
3D Fighter + RPG is one-hit market +1: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view41 of 50 launches | Without the breakout49 of 50 launches | Last 18 months31 of 50 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 501 hits | 411 hits | 490 hits | 311 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 | 2.4 in 1001 in 42 | 0.0 in 100 | 3.2 in 1001 in 31 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $121top tenth $17,851+ | $121 | $121 | $101 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +20.0%0.4 more in 100 | -100.0%2.0 fewer in 100 | +60.0%1.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -16.5%$20 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both 3D Fighter and RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 50 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 9 of 50 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Stickman Strikes: Conquer Fantasy World (49.8% of the money): 49 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 31 of 50.
3D Fighter holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| 3D Fighter | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view330 of 346 launches | Without the breakout345 of 346 launches | Last 18 months195 of 346 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 3466 hits | 3305 hits | 3455 hits | 1954 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.7 in 1001 in 59 | 1.5 in 1001 in 67 | 1.4 in 1001 in 71 | 2.1 in 1001 in 48 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $202top tenth $5,060+ | $202 | $202 | $202 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -11.8%0.2 fewer in 100 | -17.6%0.3 fewer in 100 | +23.5%0.4 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged 3D Fighter, 6 to 30 months old: 346 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 346 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Homura Hime (28.4% of the money): 345 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 195 of 346.
RPG holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| RPG | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,513 of 4,151 launches | Without the breakout4,150 of 4,151 launches | Last 18 months2,257 of 4,151 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,151319 hits | 3,513268 hits | 4,150318 hits | 2,257162 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.6 in 1001 in 13 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $708top tenth $62,744+ | $728 | $708 | $607 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -6.5%0.5 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +2.8%$20 more | 0.0%no change | -14.3%$101 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 4,151 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 638 of 4,151 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (16.6% of the money): 4,150 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,257 of 4,151.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when 3D Fighter + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.