Niche

Abstract + Casual

Games tagged both Abstract and Casual: 269 indie paid launches, 5 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 100+ launches Reset

Showing Abstract + Casual priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Abstract and is about level with Casual; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

13 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

--No reading

Tag onemood tagAbstract

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches43

43 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

--No reading

This pairAbstract + Casual

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches13

13 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

1STWinner

Tag twomood tagCasual

11.4in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds11.4 in 100

Typical earnings$2,971

Launches1,009 / 115 hits

Pairno reading

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Abstract is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices269 in pair Under $5208 in pair $5 to $1046 in pair $10 to $2013 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 13 games tagged both Abstract and Casual priced $10 to $20. 2 of 13 of them earned $100k+, against 2 of 30 for Abstract-only games and 11.3 in 100 for Casual-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Abstract alone and is too small to compare with Casual alone.

Both: 13 games priced $10 to $20; 2 of 13 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $4,826.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 13 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

LEGO® Voyagersleads this pair35.6%

PairLEGO® Voyagers35.6%

AbstractMycopunk23.1%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.8%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Abstract + Casual

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

LEGO® Voyagers earned 35.6% of the estimated first-year money of the 269 Abstract + Casual launches.
Abstract is led by Mycopunk, with 23.1% of its money.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.8% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Abstract + Casual holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Abstract + Casual through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view259 of 269 launches	Without the breakout268 of 269 launches	Last 18 months94 of 269 launches
Launches counted	2695 hits	2594 hits	2684 hits	944 hits
Earned $100k+	1.9 in 1001 in 54	4 of 259too few for a rate	4 of 268too few for a rate	4 of 94too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$202top tenth $3,215+	$202	$202	$285
Chance against standard	the base	-16.9%0.3 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-19.7%0.4 fewer in 100	+128.9%2.4 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	+41.1%$83 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Abstract and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 269 launches.

Launches counted: 2695 hits
Earned $100k+: 1.9 in 1001 in 54
Typical first-year earnings: $202top tenth $3,215+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 269 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 2594 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 259too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $202
Chance against standard: -16.9%0.3 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, LEGO® Voyagers (35.6% of the money): 268 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 2684 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 268too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $202
Chance against standard: -19.7%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 94 of 269.

Launches counted: 944 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 94too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $285
Chance against standard: +128.9%2.4 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +41.1%$83 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Abstract and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 269 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 269 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, LEGO® Voyagers (35.6% of the money): 268 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 94 of 269.

Abstract is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Abstract through every lens, all prices
Abstract	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view445 of 466 launches	Without the breakout465 of 466 launches	Last 18 months165 of 466 launches
Launches counted	4667 hits	4456 hits	4656 hits	1656 hits
Earned $100k+	1.5 in 1001 in 67	1.3 in 1001 in 74	1.3 in 1001 in 78	3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings	$381top tenth $5,927+	$383	$375	$574
Chance against standard	the base	-10.2%0.2 fewer in 100	-14.1%0.2 fewer in 100	+142.1%2.1 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+0.5%$2 more	-1.6%$6 less	+50.7%$193 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Abstract, 12 to 36 months old: 466 launches.

Launches counted: 4667 hits
Earned $100k+: 1.5 in 1001 in 67
Typical first-year earnings: $381top tenth $5,927+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 21 of 466 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4456 hits
Earned $100k+: 1.3 in 1001 in 74
Typical first-year earnings: $383
Chance against standard: -10.2%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +0.5%$2 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Mycopunk (23.1% of the money): 465 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4656 hits
Earned $100k+: 1.3 in 1001 in 78
Typical first-year earnings: $375
Chance against standard: -14.1%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.6%$6 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 165 of 466.

Launches counted: 1656 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $574
Chance against standard: +142.1%2.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +50.7%$193 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Abstract, 12 to 36 months old: 466 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 21 of 466 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Mycopunk (23.1% of the money): 465 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 165 of 466.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,211 of 9,751 launches	Without the breakout9,750 of 9,751 launches	Last 18 months2,939 of 9,751 launches
Launches counted	9,751259 hits	9,211240 hits	9,750258 hits	2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+	2.7 in 1001 in 38	2.6 in 1001 in 38	2.6 in 1001 in 38	3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings	$253top tenth $8,786+	$257	$253	$230
Chance against standard	the base	-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.4%no change	+37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.6%$4 more	0.0%no change	-9.1%$23 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.

Launches counted: 9,751259 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.7 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $253top tenth $8,786+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,211240 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $257
Chance against standard: -1.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.6%$4 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,750258 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $253
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

Launches counted: 2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $230
Chance against standard: +37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard: -9.1%$23 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Abstract + Casual moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.