Niche

Adventure + Choices Matter

Games tagged both Adventure and Choices Matter: 332 indie paid launches, 32 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Adventure + Choices Matter priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Adventure and is about level with Choices Matter; priced $10 to $20 it beats Adventure and trails Choices Matter.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Adventure + Choices Matter beats Adventure and trails Choices Matter: 20.3 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 15.7 in 100 for Adventure and 23.3 in 100 for Choices Matter.

That is about 1.0 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

3RDThird

Tag onemood tagAdventure

15.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds15.7 in 100

Typical earnings$8,393

Launches1,315 / 207 hits

Pair leads by4.5 in 100

2NDRunner-up

This pairAdventure + Choices Matter

20.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.3 in 100

$1k+93 in 100

$10k+62 in 100

Launches69 / 14 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

1STWinner

Tag twomood tagChoices Matter

23.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds23.3 in 100

Typical earnings$18,577

Launches249 / 58 hits

Pair trails by3.0 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Adventure is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices332 in pair Under $5145 in pair $5 to $10100 in pair $10 to $2069 in pair $20 to $4018 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 69 games tagged both Adventure and Choices Matter priced $10 to $20. 20.3 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 15.5 in 100 for Adventure-only games and 24.4 in 100 for Choices Matter-only games, so the mix beats Adventure alone and trails Choices Matter alone.

Both: 69 games priced $10 to $20; 20.3 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 93 in 100 · $10k+ 62 in 100 · $100k+ 20 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 69 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

The Casting of Frank Stone™leads this pair17.2%

PairThe Casting of Frank Stone™17.2%

AdventurePalworld27.4%

Choices MatterLegend of Mortal11.7%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Adventure + Choices Matter

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

The Casting of Frank Stone™ earned 17.2% of the estimated first-year money of the 332 Adventure + Choices Matter launches.
Adventure is led by Palworld, with 27.4% of its money.
Choices Matter is led by Legend of Mortal, with 11.7% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Adventure + Choices Matter holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Adventure + Choices Matter through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view316 of 332 launches	Without the breakout331 of 332 launches	Last 18 months100 of 332 launches
Launches counted	33232 hits	31630 hits	33131 hits	1008 hits
Earned $100k+	9.6 in 1001 in 10	9.5 in 1001 in 11	9.4 in 1001 in 11	8.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,434top tenth $92,469+	$1,350	$1,351	$1,501
Chance against standard	the base	-1.5%0.1 fewer in 100	-2.8%0.3 fewer in 100	-17.0%1.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-5.9%$84 less	-5.8%$83 less	+4.7%$67 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Adventure and Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 332 launches.

Launches counted: 33232 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.6 in 1001 in 10
Typical first-year earnings: $1,434top tenth $92,469+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 332 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 31630 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.5 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,350
Chance against standard: -1.5%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -5.9%$84 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Casting of Frank Stone™ (17.2% of the money): 331 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 33131 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.4 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,351
Chance against standard: -2.8%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -5.8%$83 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 100 of 332.

Launches counted: 1008 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,501
Chance against standard: -17.0%1.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +4.7%$67 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Adventure and Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 332 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 332 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Casting of Frank Stone™ (17.2% of the money): 331 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 100 of 332.

Adventure holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Adventure through every lens, all prices
Adventure	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view7,233 of 7,710 launches	Without the breakout7,709 of 7,710 launches	Last 18 months2,176 of 7,710 launches
Launches counted	7,710449 hits	7,233421 hits	7,709448 hits	2,176124 hits
Earned $100k+	5.8 in 1001 in 17	5.8 in 1001 in 17	5.8 in 1001 in 17	5.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings	$618top tenth $35,206+	$643	$618	$707
Chance against standard	the base	-0.1%no change	-0.2%no change	-2.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+4.0%$25 more	0.0%no change	+14.4%$89 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Adventure, 12 to 36 months old: 7,710 launches.

Launches counted: 7,710449 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $618top tenth $35,206+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 477 of 7,710 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 7,233421 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $643
Chance against standard: -0.1%no change
Typical against standard: +4.0%$25 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (27.4% of the money): 7,709 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 7,709448 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $618
Chance against standard: -0.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,176 of 7,710.

Launches counted: 2,176124 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $707
Chance against standard: -2.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +14.4%$89 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Adventure, 12 to 36 months old: 7,710 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 477 of 7,710 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (27.4% of the money): 7,709 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,176 of 7,710.

Choices Matter is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Choices Matter through every lens, all prices
Choices Matter	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,114 of 1,168 launches	Without the breakout1,167 of 1,168 launches	Last 18 months344 of 1,168 launches
Launches counted	1,168108 hits	1,11496 hits	1,167107 hits	34426 hits
Earned $100k+	9.2 in 1001 in 11	8.6 in 1001 in 12	9.2 in 1001 in 11	7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,201top tenth $88,388+	$1,168	$1,178	$1,089
Chance against standard	the base	-6.8%0.6 fewer in 100	-0.8%0.1 fewer in 100	-18.3%1.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-2.7%$33 less	-1.9%$23 less	-9.3%$112 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 1,168 launches.

Launches counted: 1,168108 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.2 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,201top tenth $88,388+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 54 of 1,168 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,11496 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,168
Chance against standard: -6.8%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.7%$33 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (11.7% of the money): 1,167 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,167107 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.2 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,178
Chance against standard: -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.9%$23 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 344 of 1,168.

Launches counted: 34426 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,089
Chance against standard: -18.3%1.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -9.3%$112 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 1,168 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 54 of 1,168 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (11.7% of the money): 1,167 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 344 of 1,168.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Adventure + Choices Matter moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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