Niche

Adventure + Surreal

Games tagged both Adventure and Surreal: 165 indie paid launches, 6 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Adventure + Surreal priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Adventure and is about level with Surreal; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Adventure and is too small to compare with Surreal.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Adventure + Surreal is too small to compare with Adventure and is too small to compare with Surreal: 4 of its 20 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 15.7 in 100 for Adventure and 21.2 in 100 for Surreal.

Small sample: 20 launches, 4 hits.

TIETied

Tag onemood tagAdventure

15.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds15.7 in 100

Typical earnings$8,393

Launches1,315 / 207 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairAdventure + Surreal

4 of 20launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds4 of 20 launches

$1k+18 of 20 launches

$10k+11 of 20 launches

Launches20 / 4 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagSurreal

21.2in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds21.2 in 100

$1k+89 in 100

$10k+60 in 100

Launches85 / 18 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Adventure is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices165 in pair Under $592 in pair $5 to $1051 in pair $10 to $2020 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 20 games tagged both Adventure and Surreal priced $10 to $20. 4 of 20 of them earned $100k+, against 15.7 in 100 for Adventure-only games and 21.5 in 100 for Surreal-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Adventure alone and is too small to compare with Surreal alone.

Both: 20 games priced $10 to $20; 4 of 20 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 18 of 20 launches · $10k+ 11 of 20 launches · $100k+ 4 of 20 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 20 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Psychopomp GOLDleads this pair20.1%

PairPsychopomp GOLD20.1%

AdventurePalworld27.4%

SurrealINDIKA14.3%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Adventure + Surreal

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Psychopomp GOLD earned 20.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 165 Adventure + Surreal launches.
Adventure is led by Palworld, with 27.4% of its money.
Surreal is led by INDIKA, with 14.3% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Adventure + Surreal holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Adventure + Surreal through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view159 of 165 launches	Without the breakout164 of 165 launches	Last 18 months64 of 165 launches
Launches counted	1656 hits	1596 hits	1645 hits	641 hits
Earned $100k+	3.6 in 1001 in 28	3.8 in 1001 in 27	3.0 in 1001 in 33	1 of 64too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$1,634top tenth $47,749+	$1,599	$1,634	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+3.8%0.1 more in 100	-16.2%0.6 fewer in 100	-57.0%2.1 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	-2.1%$35 less	0.0%no change	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Adventure and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 165 launches.

Launches counted: 1656 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $1,634top tenth $47,749+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 6 of 165 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1596 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.8 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $1,599
Chance against standard: +3.8%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: -2.1%$35 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Psychopomp GOLD (20.1% of the money): 164 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1645 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $1,634
Chance against standard: -16.2%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 64 of 165.

Launches counted: 641 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 64too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -57.0%2.1 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Adventure and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 165 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 6 of 165 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Psychopomp GOLD (20.1% of the money): 164 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 64 of 165.

Adventure holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Adventure through every lens, all prices
Adventure	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view7,233 of 7,710 launches	Without the breakout7,709 of 7,710 launches	Last 18 months2,176 of 7,710 launches
Launches counted	7,710449 hits	7,233421 hits	7,709448 hits	2,176124 hits
Earned $100k+	5.8 in 1001 in 17	5.8 in 1001 in 17	5.8 in 1001 in 17	5.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings	$618top tenth $35,206+	$643	$618	$707
Chance against standard	the base	-0.1%no change	-0.2%no change	-2.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+4.0%$25 more	0.0%no change	+14.4%$89 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Adventure, 12 to 36 months old: 7,710 launches.

Launches counted: 7,710449 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $618top tenth $35,206+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 477 of 7,710 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 7,233421 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $643
Chance against standard: -0.1%no change
Typical against standard: +4.0%$25 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (27.4% of the money): 7,709 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 7,709448 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $618
Chance against standard: -0.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,176 of 7,710.

Launches counted: 2,176124 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $707
Chance against standard: -2.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +14.4%$89 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Adventure, 12 to 36 months old: 7,710 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 477 of 7,710 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (27.4% of the money): 7,709 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,176 of 7,710.

Surreal is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Surreal through every lens, all prices
Surreal	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view582 of 607 launches	Without the breakout606 of 607 launches	Last 18 months176 of 607 launches
Launches counted	60733 hits	58232 hits	60632 hits	1766 hits
Earned $100k+	5.4 in 1001 in 18	5.5 in 1001 in 18	5.3 in 1001 in 19	3.4 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings	$1,093top tenth $38,731+	$1,087	$1,093	$1,454
Chance against standard	the base	+1.1%0.1 more in 100	-2.9%0.2 fewer in 100	-37.3%2.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-0.5%$6 less	0.0%no change	+33.0%$361 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 607 launches.

Launches counted: 60733 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $1,093top tenth $38,731+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 25 of 607 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 58232 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.5 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $1,087
Chance against standard: +1.1%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: -0.5%$6 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (14.3% of the money): 606 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 60632 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.3 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,093
Chance against standard: -2.9%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 176 of 607.

Launches counted: 1766 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.4 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings: $1,454
Chance against standard: -37.3%2.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +33.0%$361 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 607 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 25 of 607 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (14.3% of the money): 606 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 176 of 607.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Adventure + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.