Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Arcade + Retro
Games tagged both Arcade and Retro: 367 indie paid launches, 11 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Arcade + Retro priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Arcade and is about level with Retro; priced $10 to $20 it is about level with Arcade and trails Retro.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Arcade + Retro is about level with Arcade and trails Retro: 12.8 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 11.7 in 100 for Arcade and 21.0 in 100 for Retro.
That is about 0.6 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 39 games tagged both Arcade and Retro priced $10 to $20. 12.8 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 11.6 in 100 for Arcade-only games and 23.4 in 100 for Retro-only games, so the mix is about level with Arcade alone and trails Retro alone.
Both: 39 games priced $10 to $20; 12.8 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 82 in 100 · $10k+ 41 in 100 · $100k+ 13 in 100.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 39 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Arcade + Retro is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view366 of 367 launches | Without the breakout366 of 367 launches | Last 18 months107 of 367 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 36711 hits | 36611 hits | 36610 hits | 1073 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 2.7 in 1001 in 37 | 3 of 107too few for a rate |
| Typical first-year earnings | $270top tenth $8,842+ | $270 | $270 | $217 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.3%no change | -8.8%0.3 fewer in 100 | -6.5%0.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -19.6%$53 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Retro, 12 to 36 months old: 367 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 367 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, UFO 50 (50.5% of the money): 366 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 107 of 367.
Arcade is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Arcade | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,602 of 3,624 launches | Without the breakout3,623 of 3,624 launches | Last 18 months1,016 of 3,624 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 3,62489 hits | 3,60288 hits | 3,62388 hits | 1,01634 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.5 in 1001 in 41 | 2.4 in 1001 in 41 | 2.4 in 1001 in 41 | 3.3 in 1001 in 30 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $221top tenth $8,880+ | $221 | $221 | $218 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.5%no change | -1.1%no change | +36.3%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -1.4%$3 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,624 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 3,624 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, BALL x PIT (14.9% of the money): 3,623 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,016 of 3,624.
Retro holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Retro | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,310 of 1,343 launches | Without the breakout1,342 of 1,343 launches | Last 18 months386 of 1,343 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,34366 hits | 1,31065 hits | 1,34265 hits | 38620 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.9 in 1001 in 20 | 5.0 in 1001 in 20 | 4.8 in 1001 in 21 | 5.2 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $599top tenth $26,477+ | $638 | $599 | $545 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.0%no change | -1.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | +5.4%0.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.5%$39 more | 0.0%no change | -9.0%$54 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Retro, 12 to 36 months old: 1,343 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 1,343 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Mouthwashing (20.6% of the money): 1,342 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 386 of 1,343.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Arcade + Retro moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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