Niche

Casual + Collectathon

Games tagged both Casual and Collectathon: 335 indie paid launches, 9 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Casual + Collectathon priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Casual and is about level with Collectathon; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Collectathon.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + Collectathon is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Collectathon: 4 of its 40 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 15.8 in 100 for Collectathon.

Small sample: 40 launches, 4 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagCasual

13.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds13.8 in 100

Typical earnings$4,254

Launches1,006 / 139 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairCasual + Collectathon

4 of 40launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds4 of 40 launches

$1k+50 in 100

$10k+40 in 100

Launches40 / 4 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoCollectathon

15.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds15.8 in 100

Typical earnings$10,477

Launches114 / 18 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices335 in pair Under $5215 in pair $5 to $1070 in pair $10 to $2040 in pair $20 to $4010 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 40 games tagged both Casual and Collectathon priced $10 to $20. 4 of 40 of them earned $100k+, against 14.0 in 100 for Casual-only games and 18.9 in 100 for Collectathon-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Casual alone and is too small to compare with Collectathon alone.

Both: 40 games priced $10 to $20; 4 of 40 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 50 in 100 · $10k+ 40 in 100 · $100k+ 4 of 40 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 40 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Tiny Bookshopleads this pair54.0%

PairTiny Bookshop54.0%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%

CollectathonTCG Card Shop Simulator55.5%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Collectathon

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Tiny Bookshop earned 54.0% of the estimated first-year money of the 335 Casual + Collectathon launches.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
Collectathon is led by TCG Card Shop Simulator, with 55.5% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Collectathon is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view.

Casual + Collectathon through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view313 of 335 launches	Without the breakout334 of 335 launches	Last 18 months99 of 335 launches
Launches counted	3359 hits	3138 hits	3348 hits	993 hits
Earned $100k+	2.7 in 1001 in 37	2.6 in 1001 in 39	2.4 in 1001 in 42	3 of 99too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$387top tenth $14,974+	$387	$387	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	-4.9%0.1 fewer in 100	-10.8%0.3 fewer in 100	+12.8%0.3 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Collectathon, 12 to 36 months old: 335 launches.

Launches counted: 3359 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.7 in 1001 in 37
Typical first-year earnings: $387top tenth $14,974+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 335 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3138 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.6 in 1001 in 39
Typical first-year earnings: $387
Chance against standard: -4.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Tiny Bookshop (54.0% of the money): 334 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3348 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.4 in 1001 in 42
Typical first-year earnings: $387
Chance against standard: -10.8%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 99 of 335.

Launches counted: 993 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 99too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +12.8%0.3 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Collectathon, 12 to 36 months old: 335 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 335 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Tiny Bookshop (54.0% of the money): 334 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 99 of 335.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches	Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches	Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted	9,921305 hits	9,378287 hits	9,920304 hits	2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$252top tenth $10,057+	$268	$252	$272
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-0.3%no change	+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+6.3%$16 more	0.0%no change	+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted: 9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $268
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: +6.3%$16 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted: 2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $272
Chance against standard: +41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.9%$20 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Collectathon is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Collectathon through every lens, all prices
Collectathon	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view715 of 750 launches	Without the breakout749 of 750 launches	Last 18 months224 of 750 launches
Launches counted	75031 hits	71530 hits	74930 hits	2249 hits
Earned $100k+	4.1 in 1001 in 24	4.2 in 1001 in 24	4.0 in 1001 in 25	4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings	$569top tenth $28,653+	$584	$558	$454
Chance against standard	the base	+1.5%0.1 more in 100	-3.1%0.1 fewer in 100	-2.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+2.6%$15 more	-1.9%$11 less	-20.2%$115 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Collectathon, 12 to 36 months old: 750 launches.

Launches counted: 75031 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.1 in 1001 in 24
Typical first-year earnings: $569top tenth $28,653+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 35 of 750 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 71530 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.2 in 1001 in 24
Typical first-year earnings: $584
Chance against standard: +1.5%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +2.6%$15 more

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, TCG Card Shop Simulator (55.5% of the money): 749 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 74930 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings: $558
Chance against standard: -3.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.9%$11 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 224 of 750.

Launches counted: 2249 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings: $454
Chance against standard: -2.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -20.2%$115 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Collectathon, 12 to 36 months old: 750 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 35 of 750 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, TCG Card Shop Simulator (55.5% of the money): 749 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 224 of 750.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Collectathon moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.