Niche

Casual + Cozy

Games tagged both Casual and Cozy: 360 indie paid launches, 52 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Casual + Cozy priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Casual and is about level with Cozy; priced $10 to $20 it beats both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + Cozy beats both its tags: 58.5 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 50.0 in 100 for Cozy.

That is about 2.8 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

3RDThird

Tag onemood tagCasual

13.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds13.8 in 100

Typical earnings$4,254

Launches1,006 / 139 hits

Pair leads by44.7 in 100

1STWinner

This pairCasual + Cozy

58.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds58.5 in 100

$1k+98 in 100

$10k+85 in 100

Launches53 / 31 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

2NDRunner-up

Tag twoCozy

50.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds50.0 in 100

Typical earnings$103,444

Launches114 / 57 hits

Pair leads by8.5 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 5 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices360 in pair Under $5234 in pair $5 to $1067 in pair $10 to $2053 in pair$20 to $406: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 53 games tagged both Casual and Cozy priced $10 to $20. 58.5 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 11.3 in 100 for Casual-only games and 42.6 in 100 for Cozy-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.

Both: 53 games priced $10 to $20; 58.5 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 98 in 100 · $10k+ 85 in 100 · $100k+ 58 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 53 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Hello Kitty Island Adventureleads this pair15.6%

PairHello Kitty Island Adventure15.6%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%

CozyHello Kitty Island Adventure9.9%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Cozy

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Hello Kitty Island Adventure earned 15.6% of the estimated first-year money of the 360 Casual + Cozy launches.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
It also leads Cozy, with 9.9% of that tag's money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Cozy is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Casual + Cozy through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view356 of 360 launches	Without the breakout359 of 360 launches	Last 18 months145 of 360 launches
Launches counted	36052 hits	35650 hits	35951 hits	14526 hits
Earned $100k+	14.4 in 100	14.0 in 100	14.2 in 100	17.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,505top tenth $213,929+	$1,470	$1,486	$1,631
Chance against standard	the base	-2.8%0.4 fewer in 100	-1.6%0.2 fewer in 100	+24.1%3.5 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-2.3%$35 less	-1.3%$19 less	+8.4%$126 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Cozy, 12 to 36 months old: 360 launches.

Launches counted: 36052 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,505top tenth $213,929+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 360 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 35650 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,470
Chance against standard: -2.8%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.3%$35 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (15.6% of the money): 359 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 35951 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,486
Chance against standard: -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.3%$19 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 145 of 360.

Launches counted: 14526 hits
Earned $100k+: 17.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,631
Chance against standard: +24.1%3.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: +8.4%$126 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Cozy, 12 to 36 months old: 360 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 360 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (15.6% of the money): 359 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 145 of 360.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches	Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches	Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted	9,921305 hits	9,378287 hits	9,920304 hits	2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$252top tenth $10,057+	$268	$252	$272
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-0.3%no change	+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+6.3%$16 more	0.0%no change	+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted: 9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $268
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: +6.3%$16 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted: 2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $272
Chance against standard: +41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.9%$20 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Cozy is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Cozy through every lens, all prices
Cozy	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view516 of 523 launches	Without the breakout522 of 523 launches	Last 18 months209 of 523 launches
Launches counted	52390 hits	51686 hits	52289 hits	20941 hits
Earned $100k+	17.2 in 100	16.7 in 100	17.0 in 100	19.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,500top tenth $255,969+	$2,415	$2,500	$2,957
Chance against standard	the base	-3.1%0.5 fewer in 100	-0.9%0.2 fewer in 100	+14.0%2.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-3.4%$85 less	0.0%no change	+18.3%$457 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Cozy, 12 to 36 months old: 523 launches.

Launches counted: 52390 hits
Earned $100k+: 17.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,500top tenth $255,969+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 523 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 51686 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,415
Chance against standard: -3.1%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -3.4%$85 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (9.9% of the money): 522 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 52289 hits
Earned $100k+: 17.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,500
Chance against standard: -0.9%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 209 of 523.

Launches counted: 20941 hits
Earned $100k+: 19.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,957
Chance against standard: +14.0%2.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: +18.3%$457 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Cozy, 12 to 36 months old: 523 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 523 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (9.9% of the money): 522 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 209 of 523.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Cozy moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.