Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Hand-drawn: a typical launch earns $647 in its first year

That is the median of 297 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 16 of 579 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 15.7 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 15% on the year before: 417 against 363.

Price: $647
Price vs a year earlier: −19.9%
Releases, 12 months: 417
Upcoming games: 712
Games on the store: 2,411

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Hand-drawn on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.24%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.14% to 0.34%	34 ranked of 713 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#922 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.02xhits against expected	0.73x to 1.44x	579 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#2,693 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+28%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	+12% to +47%	107 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#550 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+8%review growth against same-age games	+2% to +14%	107 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#425 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 16
Expected: 15.7

Launches: 579
Hit rate: 2.8%1.9% to 4.3%
Expected rate: 2.7%
Against expected: 1.02x0.73x to 1.44x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

579 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $606
Top tenth: $8,213

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 417
Prior 12 months: 363

Change: +15%
Against Steam: −16%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Hand-drawnNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Hand-drawn

pairs with Hand-drawn

Story Rich + Hand-drawn$5,46489 launches priced, 127 releases in 12 months
Emotional + Hand-drawn$3,75736 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
Hand-drawn + Female Protagonist$2,64735 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months
Adventure + Hand-drawn$2,418137 launches priced, 233 releases in 12 months
Hand-drawn + Interactive Fiction$2,02244 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Hand-drawn$1,84974 launches priced, 139 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Hand-drawn

Verdicts

in development

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