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on 11 Nov 2026

Niches / Casual + Roguelike

Niche

Casual + Roguelike

Games tagged both Casual and Roguelike: 521 indie paid launches, 18 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Casual + Roguelike priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Casual and trails Roguelike; priced $10 to $20 it beats Casual and trails Roguelike.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + Roguelike beats Casual and trails Roguelike: 18.4 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 26.9 in 100 for Roguelike.

That is about 0.9 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

3RDThird
Tag onemood tagCasual
13.8in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds13.8 in 100
Typical earnings$4,254
Launches1,006 / 139 hits
Pair leads by4.6 in 100
2NDRunner-up
This pairCasual + Roguelike
18.4in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds18.4 in 100
$1k+74 in 100
$10k+50 in 100
Launches38 / 7 hits
Expected20.5 in 100
1STWinner
Tag twoRoguelike
26.9in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds26.9 in 100
Typical earnings$21,081
Launches416 / 112 hits
Pair trails by8.5 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices521 in pairUnder $5347 in pair$5 to $10132 in pair$10 to $2038 in pair$20 to $404: too few
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 38 games tagged both Casual and Roguelike priced $10 to $20. 18.4 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 13.6 in 100 for Casual-only games and 27.8 in 100 for Roguelike-only games, so the mix beats Casual alone and trails Roguelike alone.

Both: 38 games priced $10 to $20; 18.4 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 74 in 100 · $10k+ 50 in 100 · $100k+ 18 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 38 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Helleads this pair22.2%
PairJotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel22.2%
CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%
RoguelikeHades II16.0%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Roguelike

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel earned 22.2% of the estimated first-year money of the 521 Casual + Roguelike launches.
  • Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
  • Roguelike is led by Hades II, with 16.0% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Roguelike is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Casual + Roguelike through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view470 of 521 launchesWithout the breakout520 of 521 launchesLast 18 months175 of 521 launches
Launches counted52118 hits47016 hits52017 hits1756 hits
Earned $100k+3.5 in 1001 in 293.4 in 1001 in 293.3 in 1001 in 313.4 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings$218top tenth $15,561+$273$218$182
Chance against standardthe base-1.5%0.1 fewer in 100-5.4%0.2 fewer in 100-0.8%no change
Typical against standardthe base+25.2%$55 more0.0%no change-16.5%$36 less
Does it hold?The base viewMoves the answerHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Roguelike, 12 to 36 months old: 521 launches.

Launches counted
52118 hits
Earned $100k+
3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings
$218top tenth $15,561+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 51 of 521 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
47016 hits
Earned $100k+
3.4 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings
$273
Chance against standard
-1.5%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+25.2%$55 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel (22.2% of the money): 520 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
52017 hits
Earned $100k+
3.3 in 1001 in 31
Typical first-year earnings
$218
Chance against standard
-5.4%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 175 of 521.

Launches counted
1756 hits
Earned $100k+
3.4 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings
$182
Chance against standard
-0.8%no change
Typical against standard
-16.5%$36 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Roguelike, 12 to 36 months old: 521 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 51 of 521 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel (22.2% of the money): 520 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 175 of 521.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
CasualBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launchesWithout the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launchesLast 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted9,921305 hits9,378287 hits9,920304 hits2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+3.1 in 1001 in 333.1 in 1001 in 333.1 in 1001 in 334.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings$252top tenth $10,057+$268$252$272
Chance against standardthe base-0.5%no change-0.3%no change+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+6.3%$16 more0.0%no change+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted
9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$268
Chance against standard
-0.5%no change
Typical against standard
+6.3%$16 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$252
Chance against standard
-0.3%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted
2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+
4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings
$272
Chance against standard
+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
+7.9%$20 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Roguelike holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Roguelike through every lens, all prices
RoguelikeBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view2,002 of 2,152 launchesWithout the breakout2,151 of 2,152 launchesLast 18 months675 of 2,152 launches
Launches counted2,152178 hits2,002164 hits2,151177 hits67558 hits
Earned $100k+8.3 in 1001 in 128.2 in 1001 in 128.2 in 1001 in 128.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings$1,017top tenth $71,528+$1,091$1,012$909
Chance against standardthe base-1.0%0.1 fewer in 100-0.5%no change+3.9%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+7.3%$74 more-0.5%$5 less-10.6%$108 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Roguelike, 12 to 36 months old: 2,152 launches.

Launches counted
2,152178 hits
Earned $100k+
8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$1,017top tenth $71,528+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 150 of 2,152 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
2,002164 hits
Earned $100k+
8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$1,091
Chance against standard
-1.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+7.3%$74 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hades II (16.0% of the money): 2,151 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
2,151177 hits
Earned $100k+
8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$1,012
Chance against standard
-0.5%no change
Typical against standard
-0.5%$5 less
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 675 of 2,152.

Launches counted
67558 hits
Earned $100k+
8.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$909
Chance against standard
+3.9%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
-10.6%$108 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Roguelike, 12 to 36 months old: 2,152 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 150 of 2,152 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Hades II (16.0% of the money): 2,151 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 675 of 2,152.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Roguelike moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.