Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Casual + Roguelite
Games tagged both Casual and Roguelite: 490 indie paid launches, 21 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Casual + Roguelite priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Casual and trails Roguelite; priced $10 to $20 it beats Casual and trails Roguelite.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Casual + Roguelite beats Casual and trails Roguelite: 23.7 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 29.0 in 100 for Roguelite.
That is about 1.2 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 38 games tagged both Casual and Roguelite priced $10 to $20. 23.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 13.4 in 100 for Casual-only games and 29.6 in 100 for Roguelite-only games, so the mix beats Casual alone and trails Roguelite alone.
Both: 38 games priced $10 to $20; 23.7 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 89 in 100 · $10k+ 55 in 100 · $100k+ 24 in 100.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 38 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Casual + Roguelite holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view443 of 490 launches | Without the breakout489 of 490 launches | Last 18 months161 of 490 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 49021 hits | 44320 hits | 48920 hits | 1614 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.3 in 1001 in 23 | 4.5 in 1001 in 22 | 4.1 in 1001 in 24 | 4 of 161too few for a rate |
| Typical first-year earnings | $326top tenth $23,083+ | $365 | $325 | $273 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +5.3%0.2 more in 100 | -4.6%0.2 fewer in 100 | -42.0%1.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | +12.0%$39 more | -0.3%$1 less | -16.3%$53 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Roguelite, 12 to 36 months old: 490 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 490 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel (22.3% of the money): 489 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 161 of 490.
Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Casual | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches | Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches | Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9,921305 hits | 9,378287 hits | 9,920304 hits | 2,915127 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 4.4 in 1001 in 23 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $252top tenth $10,057+ | $268 | $252 | $272 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.5%no change | -0.3%no change | +41.7%1.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.3%$16 more | 0.0%no change | +7.9%$20 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.
Roguelite holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Roguelite | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,926 of 2,066 launches | Without the breakout2,065 of 2,066 launches | Last 18 months637 of 2,066 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2,066189 hits | 1,926177 hits | 2,065188 hits | 63765 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.1 in 1001 in 11 | 9.2 in 1001 in 11 | 9.1 in 1001 in 11 | 10.2 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,178top tenth $89,632+ | $1,252 | $1,159 | $1,181 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.5%no change | -0.5%no change | +11.5%1.1 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.3%$74 more | -1.6%$19 less | +0.3%$3 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Roguelite, 12 to 36 months old: 2,066 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 140 of 2,066 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hades II (13.8% of the money): 2,065 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 637 of 2,066.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Casual + Roguelite moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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