Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Casual + Spelling
Games tagged both Casual and Spelling: 76 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Casual + Spelling priced under $5.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Casual + Spelling is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Spelling: 0 of its 51 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.5 in 100 for Casual and 0 of 59 launches for Spelling.
Small sample: 51 launches, 0 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 51 games tagged both Casual and Spelling priced under $5. 0 of 51 of them earned $100k+, against 0.5 in 100 for Casual-only games and 0 of 8 for Spelling-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Casual alone and is too small to compare with Spelling alone.
Both: 51 games priced under $5; 0 of 51 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 12 in 100 · $10k+ 0 of 51 launches · $100k+ 0 of 51 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 51 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Casual + Spelling is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view69 of 76 launches | Without the breakout75 of 76 launches | Last 18 months23 of 76 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 761 hits | 691 hits | 750 hits | 231 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1 of 76too few for a rate | 1 of 69too few for a rate | 0 of 75too few for a rate | 1 of 23too few for a rate |
| Chance of $10k+ | 3 of 76 launchescleared $10k; $1k+ 29 in 100 | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +10.1%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell | -100.0%1.3 fewer in 100 | +230.4%3.0 more in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Too few to tell | Moves the answer | Too few to tell |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Spelling, 12 to 36 months old: 76 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 76 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Word Play (59.3% of the money): 75 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 23 of 76.
Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Casual | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches | Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches | Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9,921305 hits | 9,378287 hits | 9,920304 hits | 2,915127 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 4.4 in 1001 in 23 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $252top tenth $10,057+ | $268 | $252 | $272 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.5%no change | -0.3%no change | +41.7%1.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.3%$16 more | 0.0%no change | +7.9%$20 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.
Spelling holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Spelling | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view89 of 96 launches | Without the breakout95 of 96 launches | Last 18 months29 of 96 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 961 hits | 891 hits | 950 hits | 291 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1 of 96too few for a rate | 1 of 89too few for a rate | 0 of 95too few for a rate | 1 of 29too few for a rate |
| Chance of $10k+ | 7 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 33 in 100 | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +7.9%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell | -100.0%1.0 fewer in 100 | +231.0%2.4 more in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Too few to tell | Holds | Too few to tell |
Every indie paid launch tagged Spelling, 12 to 36 months old: 96 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 96 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Word Play (41.2% of the money): 95 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 29 of 96.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Casual + Spelling moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.