Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Casual + Third Person
Casual + Third Person
Games tagged both Casual and Third Person: 409 indie paid launches, 10 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Casual + Third Person priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Casual and trails Third Person; priced $10 to $20 it beats both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Casual + Third Person beats both its tags: 24.2 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 17.6 in 100 for Third Person.
That is about 1.2 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 33 games tagged both Casual and Third Person priced $10 to $20. 24.2 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 13.5 in 100 for Casual-only games and 16.6 in 100 for Third Person-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 33 games priced $10 to $20; 24.2 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 67 in 100 · $10k+ 36 in 100 · $100k+ 24 in 100.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 33 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Casual + Third Person holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view396 of 409 launches | Without the breakout408 of 409 launches | Last 18 months109 of 409 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 40910 hits | 39610 hits | 4089 hits | 1094 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.4 in 1001 in 41 | 2.5 in 1001 in 40 | 2.2 in 1001 in 45 | 4 of 109too few for a rate |
| Typical first-year earnings | $135top tenth $3,475+ | $143 | $135 | $145 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +3.3%0.1 more in 100 | -9.8%0.2 fewer in 100 | +50.1%1.2 more in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | +5.9%$8 more | 0.0%no change | +7.4%$10 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 409 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 13 of 409 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Baby Steps (17.5% of the money): 408 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 109 of 409.
Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Casual | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches | Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches | Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9,921305 hits | 9,378287 hits | 9,920304 hits | 2,915127 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 4.4 in 1001 in 23 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $252top tenth $10,057+ | $268 | $252 | $272 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.5%no change | -0.3%no change | +41.7%1.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.3%$16 more | 0.0%no change | +7.9%$20 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.
Third Person holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Third Person | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,448 of 1,502 launches | Without the breakout1,501 of 1,502 launches | Last 18 months422 of 1,502 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,50288 hits | 1,44886 hits | 1,50187 hits | 42226 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 5.9 in 1001 in 17 | 5.9 in 1001 in 17 | 5.8 in 1001 in 17 | 6.2 in 1001 in 16 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $300top tenth $27,197+ | $319 | $300 | $300 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.4%0.1 more in 100 | -1.1%0.1 fewer in 100 | +5.2%0.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.3%$19 more | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 1,502 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 54 of 1,502 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (13.9% of the money): 1,501 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 422 of 1,502.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Casual + Third Person moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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