Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Visual Novel: a typical launch earns $900 in its first year

That is the median of 314 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 19 of 634 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 48.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 35% on the year before: 525 against 388.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese

Price: $900
Price vs a year earlier: +11.2%
Releases, 12 months: 525
Upcoming games: 952
Games on the store: 3,479

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Visual Novel on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.20%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.16% to 0.24%	58 ranked of 952 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,059 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.43xhits against expected	0.31x to 0.59x	634 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#6,321 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	+4%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−10% to +22%	115 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,317 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	+2%review growth against same-age games	−3% to +10%	115 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,860 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 19
Expected: 48.6

Launches: 634
Hit rate: 3.0%2.6% to 6.8%
Expected rate: 7.7%
Against expected: 0.43x0.31x to 0.59x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

633 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $607
Top tenth: $27,272

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 525
Prior 12 months: 388

Change: +35%
Against Steam: −1%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

Verdicts

in development

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