Niche

Casual + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Casual and Visual Novel: 694 indie paid launches, 24 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Casual + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Casual and trails Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + Visual Novel trails both its tags: 5.5 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 14.1 in 100 for Visual Novel.

That is 1 in 18, about 0.3 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagCasual

13.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds13.8 in 100

Typical earnings$4,254

Launches1,006 / 139 hits

Pair trails by8.3 in 100

3RDThird

This pairCasual + Visual Novel

5.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 18

Typical earnings$4,602

Launches146 / 8 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.1in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.1 in 100

Typical earnings$10,523

Launches434 / 61 hits

Pair trails by8.6 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices694 in pair Under $5343 in pair $5 to $10165 in pair $10 to $20146 in pair $20 to $4040 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 146 games tagged both Casual and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 5.5 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 15.2 in 100 for Casual-only games and 18.4 in 100 for Visual Novel-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.

Both: 146 games priced $10 to $20; 5.5 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 18), typical first-year earnings $4,602.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 146 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

I Wani Hug that Gator!leads this pair12.6%

PairI Wani Hug that Gator!12.6%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%

Visual NovelThe Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty6.6%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

I Wani Hug that Gator! earned 12.6% of the estimated first-year money of the 694 Casual + Visual Novel launches.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty, with 6.6% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Visual Novel holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Casual + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view623 of 694 launches	Without the breakout693 of 694 launches	Last 18 months187 of 694 launches
Launches counted	69424 hits	62321 hits	69323 hits	1877 hits
Earned $100k+	3.5 in 1001 in 29	3.4 in 1001 in 30	3.3 in 1001 in 30	3.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings	$842top tenth $24,771+	$878	$822	$643
Chance against standard	the base	-2.5%0.1 fewer in 100	-4.0%0.1 fewer in 100	+8.2%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+4.3%$36 more	-2.4%$20 less	-23.6%$199 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 694 launches.

Launches counted: 69424 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings: $842top tenth $24,771+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 71 of 694 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 62321 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.4 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $878
Chance against standard: -2.5%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +4.3%$36 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, I Wani Hug that Gator! (12.6% of the money): 693 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 69323 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $822
Chance against standard: -4.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.4%$20 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 187 of 694.

Launches counted: 1877 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $643
Chance against standard: +8.2%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: -23.6%$199 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 694 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 71 of 694 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, I Wani Hug that Gator! (12.6% of the money): 693 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 187 of 694.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches	Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches	Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted	9,921305 hits	9,378287 hits	9,920304 hits	2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$252top tenth $10,057+	$268	$252	$272
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-0.3%no change	+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+6.3%$16 more	0.0%no change	+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted: 9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $268
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: +6.3%$16 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted: 2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $272
Chance against standard: +41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.9%$20 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,671 of 1,901 launches	Without the breakout1,900 of 1,901 launches	Last 18 months533 of 1,901 launches
Launches counted	1,901128 hits	1,67198 hits	1,900127 hits	53335 hits
Earned $100k+	6.7 in 1001 in 15	5.9 in 1001 in 17	6.7 in 1001 in 15	6.6 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings	$1,453top tenth $60,301+	$1,414	$1,453	$1,308
Chance against standard	the base	-12.9%0.9 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	-2.5%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-2.7%$39 less	0.0%no change	-10.0%$145 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,901 launches.

Launches counted: 1,901128 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.7 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,453top tenth $60,301+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 230 of 1,901 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,67198 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,414
Chance against standard: -12.9%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.7%$39 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (6.6% of the money): 1,900 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,900127 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.7 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,453
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 533 of 1,901.

Launches counted: 53335 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.6 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,308
Chance against standard: -2.5%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -10.0%$145 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,901 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 230 of 1,901 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (6.6% of the money): 1,900 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 533 of 1,901.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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